daily fantasy sports articles
2019 AFL Grand Final Player Prop Bets
You may have heard there’s a footy match on this weekend. Yes, Richmond and GWS are battling it out in front of 90,000+ at the MCG on Saturday afternoon. And while the game itself promises to be great entertainment, why not make it even better by having the chance to win some cash on our player prop bets?!
The odds and points line for the Grand Final are as follows:
Richmond Tigers vs GWS Giants at MCG (bookmarkers’ total 152.5, RICH -17.5)
As always, we’ve scoured all the markets at the major betting agencies to bring you our favourite plays in a bid to win you some extra spending money. Check out this week’s edition below and good luck to everyone following!
For reference, the graph below displays the average fantasy points each team concedes to opposition players each week. If you want to do a bit of individual research, you can check out our Data Tools here.
We’ll kick off our Grand Final prop bets with a play on young Tiger star Liam Baker. He’s had a breakout season playing 18 games and has been a key player in their two finals thus far. He’s averaging 17.2 disposals and 68.7 fantasy points in 2019. He has been one of the best performing Tigers players during their final’s series and had 18 touches and 67 fantasy points against the Cats last weekend. He often floats between positions without gaining much consideration from the opposition team and can be an important link player at times. Given such a low line for the Grand Final, we expect him to eclipse his overs by at least five points.
Toby is one of the most polarising figures in our game and is going to be a key figure in Saturday’s match. To everyone’s knowledge, Greene missed last weekend’s preliminary final against Collingwood through suspension and has had plenty of interesting tactics on the footy field throughout his career. Nonetheless, he’s a fantastic player and is one of the front runners for the Norm Smith Medal. 26-year-old Toby Greene is entering the prime of his career and has had another fantastic season in 2019. He’s been exceptionally good in the latter part of the season, averaging 29.6 disposals in his last eight games along with 120.9 fantasy points. Getting 96.5 fantasy points for him off a week’s break is far too low, even if he does spend a bit more time up forward, so we’ll be attacking his overs here.
For all the reasons mentioned above, we see Greene as great value in all the group betting markets. He has an extremely high ceiling and is more than capable of producing big scores on the big stage. As we mentioned in our Grand Final DFS preview, he may spend a bit of time forward, which could potentially cap his scoring, but we’re still happy to play a little something on him in his BetEasy group in the case that he breaks the game open.
Brandon Ellis is one of the more interesting players participating in the Grand Final seeing how he’s almost destined to leave the club in free agency. Ellis is heavily linked with the Gold Coast on a big money deal and has seen his role diminish for the Tigers in recent weeks. He’s averaging just 61 points over his last four games with a top score of 70 and his line is set for 73.5 on Saturday. The Giants are generally hard to pick up points against in the midfield, so this looks to be a solid Unders play.
Tim Taranto is the favourite to win the Gary Ayres Award for best player in the final’s series and for good reason. He was best afield in the Giants first final and was really good again last weekend against Collingwood. He’s a fantasy beast and is well suited to finals footy when there's repeated stoppages. Taranto averaged 112.5 fantasy points this year and is coming off a big 122 last time out. He’s our favourite Giants midfielder to make a play on in this slate and should be able to eclipse his Overs.
Now for our final play where we’ll be looking at the Norm Smith Medal market with Bachar Houli being our main target. He was extremely stiff not to win it in 2017 with Dusty Martin edging him out. We all fancy the Tigers getting the chocolates again on Saturday and with the Giants giving up 3x 100+ scores to Magpies defenders last weekend, we can see Houli racking up as many touches as he pleases - making him the obvious choice for Normie. We also like him to crack the ton in Fantasy, so we’ll play his 96.5 line at BetEasy.
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