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AFL 2019 Fantasy Tips: Round 4 Sunday Slate
Sunday brings a two game slate after the marathon 5 gamer on Saturday. The usual major contests are on offer on the major platforms:
In addition to previews for each and every slate this season, Daily Fantasy Rankings has also unveiled our AFL Resources page. This section provides you all the data you need to build your best lineups. It includes daily cheat sheets for both Draftstars and Moneyball, Player Correlation tables, Player Out tables, Scores Against tables, Tagging information, statistical breakdowns and much more!
The two games on this slate are as follows:
- Gold Coast v Carlton at Metricon Stadium (bookmarkers’ total 159.5, line GCS -8.5)
- St Kilda v Hawthorn at Marvel Stadium (bookmakers’ total 169.5, HAW -15.5)
Where to Attack
In a small sample size this season Hawthorn have seen a dramatic turn around in fantasy points conceded after being the third stingiest team in 2018 they have given up the fourth most points through 3 rounds in 2019. This slate also has Carlton who have given up the third most points and St Kilda who have conceded the fifth most.
The spot to attack the Hawks is via the backline, a position to which they have given up the second most points in the league to so far. This is a trend consistent with last year where Hawthorn were particularly susceptible to key defenders. Gold Coast on the flip side have surprisingly conceded just 56 points per player to backs this season, the third lowest mark in the league.
The mid field has been the one position that has still gotten hold of the Gold Coast in 2019, they have conceded 91 points per player, which is the 5th highest mark. This year is a small sample size, but in 2018 they gave up the most points in the league to this position by a wide margin.
Carlton have been getting absolutely torched by opposition ruckman this season conceding a ridiculous 116 points per player to the number 1 ruck. This is over 13 points per game higher than the next closest team.
No obvious targets for stacks on this slate, you could really go with any team. Hawthorn are the biggest favourites and could possibly be under rated by that line. I will be looking to get exposure to them as part of my stacks on this slate.
When it comes to stacking Hawks I can never go past linking up their forward line in Jack Gunston and Luke Breust. The two have a positive 0.3 correlation factor and St Kilda give up the fifth most points in the league to forwards so far this year.
Paddy Dow (DS $8,370, MB $4,900) has shown 80 point upside this season playing a significant role through the midfield for Carlton. On this slate he matches up against the Gold Coast who have given up the fifth most fantasy points in the league to centres this season and in 2018 gave up the most points.
Josh Battle (DS $8,020, MB $4,800) is a solid value play on a slate where finding value will be tough. He has already shown right on 10x upside this season with a 79 point game last week. On this slate he matches up against Hawthorn have historically conceded points to key position backs, a trend continuing this year as they give up the most points in the league.
MID PRICED PLAYS
Brayden Fiorini (DS $13,980, MB $8,200) is pretty much a lock and load play for me on this slate. With two scores of 110+ from three rounds this season he draws one of the top matchups in the league this season. Carlton have given up the fourth most points to midfielders so far this season.
Jarrod Witts (DS $14,040, MB $8,200) is just a lock and load play on this slate. He has the best matchup in the league this season against Carlton who as noted above have given up 116 points per game to opposition number 1 rucks. Witt is rucking over 80% of the time for Gold Coast and he has absolutely dominated the hit outs this season, while still backing up with high scores from around the ground.
Patrick Cripps (DS $16,510, MB $10,400) is a great value play at this price point with 160 point upside. He has an elite matchup on this slate as noted above against Gold Coast who are giving up the fifth most fantasy points to midfielders this season and a massive 112 points per player to the oppositions top three scoring players at the position.
Data for this preview is sourced from the Daily Fantasy Rankings AFL Resources page.
The Daily Fantasy Rankings "Dragon" has scoured the Australian sports betting markets and found some great value picks for these games. Check out his picks for the day below and click on the links to follow his betting plays!
|Most Fantasy Points - Seb Ross||$5.50||Bet now at BetEasy!|
|Hawthorn -15.5||$1.90||Bet now at Neds!|
|Brayden Fiorini to get 30+ Disposals||$3.10||Bet now at Sportsbet!|
|Home Team Top Fantasy Score - Jarrod Witts||$3.25||Bet now at Pointsbet!|
The Dragon has also picked out a lineup for the Sunday $2 Mini - feel free to use it as a starting point for your own lineup and adjust to your liking! (YTD after Round 3: $12 spend, $16.19 return)
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