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AFL 2022 Daily Fantasy Tips: Grand Final Geelong vs Sydney
Grand Final day for the 2022 AFL Premiership Season has arrived! After one of the most exciting finals series in recent memory it will be Geelong and the Sydney Swans who square off on that traditional final Saturday in September at the MCG. This should be an exciting clash between the two clear best sides over the second half of the season and there will be plenty of uncertainty over the matchup as the two sides have not played since Round 2.
For all of us daily fantasy lovers Draftstars have delivered with an absolute monster $250,000 prize pool for the main contest, as well as a massive variety of alternative contests with their biggest prize pools of the season.
- AFL $250,000+ Cats vs Swans at Draftstars
- AFL $25,000+ Cats vs Swans High Roller ($150 Entry) at Draftstars
- AFL $10,000+ Cats vs Swans Fiver at Draftstars
- AFL $10,000+ Cats vs Swans Mini ($2 Entry) at Draftstars
In addition to previews for each and every slate this season, Daily Fantasy Rankings will continue with our AFL Resources page. This section provides you all the data you need to build your best line-ups. It includes daily cheat sheets for Draftstars, Player Correlation tables, Player Out tables, Scores Against tables, Tagging information, statistical breakdowns and much more!
Smatho and Roody took a look at the contest as part of the Grand Final Edition of the Draftstars AFL Show!
Geelong vs Sydney at the MCG (GEE -12.5, 164.5) - Bet now at Ladbrokes!
The weather conditions look like they will be near perfect for football this Saturday afternoon, with little to no rain expected and a partly cloudy 14 degrees. There is certainly no indication that the weather should dictate or contribute to any of your daily fantasty roster selections in this matchup. LET’S PLAY SOME FANTASY!
Where to Attack?
It is really no surprise that both Geelong and Sydney have been extremely difficult to score fantasy points against this year. The Swans in particular have absolutely choked teams by preventing ball transition through the middle of the ground and allowed the second fewest fantasy points in the league. The Cats also allow below league average, which means it will need to be a deep dive to identify points of attack.
We noted this last week in the Geelong vs Brisbane matchup, but Geelong have conceded one of the highest amount of uncontested possessions and marks this season. The difficult component to this is that Sydney do not play an uncontested style of football at all, with below league average total possessions and uncontested possessions.
On the flipside Sydney allowed very low statistical numbers across the board for every major possession this season, while Geelong still like to possess the football. So it will come down to two very opposing styles of play and your line-ups should be based upon game scripts for potential outcomes.
As noted last week Geelong have given up over 1 point per player above league average to defenders this season. This number has jumped significantly over the last four weeks where they have conceded 73 points per player and a massive 96 points to the top three scoring opposition defenders. The designated kicker and wings who float back continue to stand out as the biggest scorers against the Cats. As mentioned above Sydney do not tend to accumulate uncontested possessions, but in their only game this year in Round 2 we did see Jake Lloyd go for over 100 fantasy points and young wingman Dylan Stephens notched up 89 points from 21 disposals, so there is a reasonable basis for the approach.
Both sides struggle in the ruck department, with the Swans conceding the most fantasy points in the league to their opponent’s number one ruckman at 90 points per game. Geelong also give up over 3 points above league average and in particularly over the last five rounds have given up 96 points per game. There is an added complication of the Cats sharing the ruck duties between Rhys Stanley and Mark Blicavs.
Game Script – Sydney backs/wings, Geelong forwards
Gary Rohan ($7,500) is having the best finals series of his career kicking 5 goals through the Cats first two finals. He posted 74 points in the first final against the Magpies, which is just under 10x return from his price point and then managed just 45 points against the Lions. This matchup has very little in the way of value options and as a result a score around 50 points might be sufficient. With the Cats over two goal favourites there should be additional scoring opportunities for Geelong forwards.
Jake Kolodjashnij ($6,840) is a similar play to Rohan in that he appears to be the best of a bad bunch in terms of value plays. Kolodjashnij played the game of his life last week against the Lions, intercepting everything across the back line as Brisbane continued to kick long while the Cats had the spare man back. They will attempt to man up in a similar manner this week, which should open up scoring opportunity for Geelong defenders. Kolo posted a massive 91 points last week, while this score is a big outlier he has now notched up four 60+ point games form his last seven games.
Mark Blicavs ($12,490) is really starting to get the praise he deserves as the most versatile player in the league. He will spend time in the ruck, while also playing inside midfielder, wing (especially if Holmes doesn’t get up) and back if needed. The biggest thing I love is the consistency of around 70-80% of Geelong’s centre bounces. It is the best matchup in the league for ruckman so there will be plenty of scoring options when he is in that role, but when he isn’t rucking he is primarily plaything through the midfield right now. Blicavs dual position availability also allows you to play Tom Hickey who also has an elite matchup against the Cats ruckmen.
Patrick Dangerfield ($13,360)… this is a career defining game for Dangerfield. With the premiership medallion the one item missing from his trophy cabinet and an absolute abomination of a performance in his last grand final where Dustin Martin stole his soul, you really can’t get any more motivation. Danger showed he still has something left in the tank last week with a wind the clock back performance, 28 disposals, 2 goals and 115 fantasy points (admittedly his first 100 point game since the 7th of July). Geelong are favourites and Dangerfield is favourite for the Norm Smith, given the price is in the $13k range he is the obvious play here if you expect a Cats win.
Jake Lloyd ($14,550) will be a point of difference in line ups. But based upon the analysis in where to attack above, he is actually in a favourable matchup. He will take the majority of the kick ins (7 out of 9 last week), so even if the Cats are on top there will be scoring potential. There is often plenty of junk time in Grand Finals as hard fought contests for three quarters end up blowing out, and Lloyd is a great player to take advantage of this.
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