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BBL09 Fantasy Tips: Renegades vs Heat
The final game of the regular season in the BBL09 is Game 56, the Melbourne Renegades (2-11) hosting the Brisbane Strikers (6-7) at Marvel Stadium. This match gets underway at the earlier time of 1445 AEDT on Monday. It is a simple equation for the Heat. Defeat the Renegades and they will finish 4th on the standings and they will host the Eliminator on Thursday. Lose and the Heat will finish the season in 7th.
First of all, along with our famous FREE Cheat Sheets and Data Tools in our Data Tools section, new for the BBL09 season, Daily Fantasy Rankings presents the Draftstars Lineup Builder! Using our Data Tools and Projections you will be able to quickly build and import BBL teams into Draftstars by using the CSV upload. Access the Builder including tutorials on how the builder works by clicking the banner below.
Draftstars have posted a $10,000 contest for a $15 entry, as well as a $1,000 Mini and even a $200 Single Entry contest for a $10 buy-in. Moneyball are offering a $4,000 contest for a $15 entry as well as a $500 guarantee on their $2 contest.
Starting with the Renegades, whilst their focus will be on this last game you could be forgiven for the ‘Gades to roll over and let the Heat do the business. Although Aaron Finch stated in the last match against the Sixers, he want to wreck teams ambitions for finals. Off his own bat he nearly did that by scoring a massive century for only for Steve Smith and Josh Philippe to chase down the target with ease. The Renegades bowlers could not make much inroads in the Sixers chase with only 2 wickets by the bowlers and a run out achieved. In spite of that loss, the Renegades have named an unchanged squad for the final game of the season.
For the Heat, the equation is simple, win and play finals or lose and go home. If it wasn’t for the massive win at the MCG against the Stars on Saturday night, then this would be a dead rubber. The innings from AB de Villiers was all class as he plundered the Stars attack all round the ‘G. The Heat will be relieved that someone from their team actually scored some decent runs after only scoring a combined 346 runs in their previous 3 games. Although it was the Heat bowlers that got the job done with 5 separate bowlers obtaining wickets. Mitch Swepson was the pick with a great spell of 3 for 31 from his 4 overs. Heat fantasy stacks would of rejoiced on Saturday night from that effort. The Heat have also named an unchanged squad of 13 for this match.
If you recall, the Heat fell in a massive hole up at the Gabba when they took on the Renegades back on the 19th of January. Not sure we will see a tremendous collapse from the Heat, but if any side is capable then this Heat side can fall in a heap when it comes to the bat. Although the Renegades bowling attack that was easily dealt with by the Sixers will have trouble putting the Heat batsman under pressure. The Marvel surface has improved on previous seasons that now provides more pace for the fast bowlers and more importantly for the batsman. The fantasy points scored from the bat has improved from 169 points per game at the start of the season to 183 per game.
The books have the Heat at very short favourites to advance to the finals of BBL09. Their confidence boosting win over the Stars will spill over the road to Marvel and “should” take this contest with ease. But the volatility of T20 cricket is wicked and will be compelling viewing if the Heat melt on Monday afternoon. As you would expect from a side that has had the population of Devonport in the Renegades squad, there are value options to complement the studs from either side. Brisbane stacks will be popular play but key players such as Finch, Kane Richardson and to some extent Beau Webster would need to be considered.
Love It - Aaron Finch ($17,700 Draftstars)
Hang on, why am I not writing about AB de Villiers? Sure AB played very well against the Stars but their attack contained a player just off the plane and an out of form fast bowler in Coulter-Nile. Finch, however, single handedly destroyed one of the best bowling attacks from the Sixers on their home deck. Finch back on his home track and likely to be owned much less than de Villiers is the much preferred play for me.
Don’t Love It - Matthew Renshaw ($15,900 Draftstars)
Renshaw batted at 5 in the last game against the Stars as the Heat rejigged their batting order once again. With Lynn at 3 and AB at 4, Renshaw’s price for his opportunity is now too much in this matchup. -10, 10 and 24 in his previous three matches means he is a pass for me.
Who Knows - Sam Heazlett ($11,600 Draftstars)
Heazlett was moved to the top of the order against the Renegades in their corresponding match back on the 19th of January. He made 56 in that innings and continued to provide quick starts against the Sixers and Stars. Heazlett is going to be a popular play at his salary and while he will be highly owned, fading is an option.
Love It - James Pattinson ($17,300 Draftstars)
Since Pattinson has returned to the Heat team he has been clearly the best bowler with his wicket taking spells. In another revenge game narrative as an ex-Renegade, Pattinson will enjoy playing back at Marvel and will be inspired to beat his old team. 106 and 57 fantasy points in his last two games.
Don’t Love It - Dan Christian ($15,700 Draftstars)
Do not let the price drop on Christian lure you to picking Christian despite his yo-yo performances. He does have the ability to obtain quick runs at the end of an innings but his bowling in his past two innings is a liability for captain Finch. Likely to bat 6 and bowl 2 overs is best means we need Christian to contribute with bat and ball to feature here.
Who Knows - Mitch Swepson ($12,500 Draftstars)
Swepson finally looked dangerous in his spell against the Stars by picking up 3 wickets including the prized scalp of Glenn Maxwell. Could he repeat this performance again on this Marvel surface? There is a possibility that this can occur, but if you rely on the data for this season, Swepson is more likely to contribute little to no fantasy production than exceed expectations.