daily fantasy sports articles
BBL09 Fantasy Tips: Strikers vs Stars
The 48th match of the BBL season takes place at the Adelaide Oval, with the third-placed Strikers taking on the top-of-the-table Stars. Finishing in the top two is a huge advantage with the re-jigged finals system this year, and the Strikers will need a win to keep pace with the Sixers (who are two points ahead).
First of all, along with our famous FREE Cheat Sheets and Data Tools in our Data Tools section, new for the BBL09 season, Daily Fantasy Rankings presents the Draftstars Lineup Builder! Using our Data Tools and Projections you will be able to quickly build and import BBL teams into Draftstars by using the CSV upload. Access the Builder including tutorials on how the builder works by clicking the banner below.
Draftstars have posted a $15,000 contest for a $15 entry, as well as a $1,500 Mini and even a $200 Single Entry contest for a $10 buy-in. Moneyball are offering a $4,000 contest for a $15 entry as well as a $500 guarantee on their $2 contest.
Historically, Adelaide has a median total of 160, with an average of six wickets lost. Batting in the first five and last five at least seem to be similar given that the mean Powerplay Runs and also 15-20 over runs are 45 and 49 respectively. Conserving wickets up top is critical, however, as the average total when no powerplay wickets are lost is 177 – dropping 25 runs to 152 if batting teams lose two in the powerplay. Interestingly, despite being known as a good batting track, chasing teams have only won 41.5% at this venue.
This season, however, has seen a mixed bag of results. The first match played was a high-scoring belter, but the first innings scores have decreased ever since: 168, 135, 173, 100. The clear aberration was the 100; and was chased down in ten overs by the home team. It’s fair to say that it is generally a good batting deck, and a score of 170 would probably be par. There shouldn’t be any rain around tomorrow night but if that changes, expect batting to be easier and therefore higher scores.
This game will be quite interesting because, other than winning for winning’s sake, there is no clear motivation for the Stars. They’re finishing on top of the table no matter how badly they go in these next two games. They’ll obviously put in the effort, but away from home, against a team hungry for a victory, the question has to be asked: is the edge going to be there? Are the one percenters going to be carried out? It’s a question you’ll have to consider when forming your teams.
The ODI squad members are back, meaning Alex Carey, Peter Handscomb and Adam Zampa are eligible for selection. Carey’s likely inclusion arguably makes the Adelaide batting unit the best in the competition. A top five of Salt, Weatherald, Carey, Head and Wells (with the pinch hitting of Rashid) is incredibly good for the usual standard of the BBL, and their matchup against the Stars’ well-oiled bowling unit will be mouth-watering.
The issue for Adelaide comes in the form of its bowling attack. Siddle and Neser are generally okay, and Rashid is Rashid, but it drops off after that. It seems strange to say after bowling teams out for 110 and 100, but there are some legitimate (possibly long term) issues. Opposing teams need to play positively against O’Connor, Agar and Head to put the pressure back onto the others. If you let Adelaide get cheap overs out of their worst bowlers, you’re making it incredibly difficult for yourself because it’s not easy to catch-up late.
The Stars have been a fascinating case-study all tournament in terms of team composition. They’ve dominated against all comers by placing a heavy emphasis on picking guns and then building a team around them. Batting-wise, Stoinis provides the fast stars, while Maxwell gives impetus late. Who they’ve had in between hasn’t really mattered, insofar that they all play a supporting role and just look to give the strike back to their two stars (if you pardon the pun).
Maddinson, Dunk, Handscomb, Larkin, Cartwright. All guys that have been tried both up the order and in the middle, with varying degrees of success. As a whole, they haven’t really been brilliant – but the point is that they know they don’t need to be as long as one of Maxwell or Stoinis is at the crease.
The bowling has been the real cornerstone of their success. Coulter-Nile, Rauf, Lamichane and Zampa is one of the all-time great attacks this competition has seen. Imagine seeing that as an opposition batsman. Who do you attack? Even Maxwell is a very good fifth bowler. Like the Scorchers in their glory years; the Stars have understood that bowling wins tournaments and have stacked theirs.
Rauf and Coulter-Nile will miss this game, leaving Lamichhane and Zampa to lead the attack. The success of the bowling unit is largely going to fall on their shoulders – so any teams constructed around the premise of Melbourne bowling well should really be containing at least one of these guys.
Love it – Travis Head ($17,200, Draftstars)
I don’t think I need to explain this one. He bats at three, is coming off a 40 ball 79 and has shown a willingness to bowl himself. Head fits the premium mold of a gun top order bat who can clunk a few filth wickets, and as such, will likely be in a lot of my teams.
Don’t Love it – Jonathan Wells ($14,500 Draftstars)
I just don’t love this spot for Wells. He’s at five, behind the openers and two of the best batsmen in the BBL at present. It’s all about opportunity to score vs. price – and this one is weighted far too negatively against him. I’d rather Phil Salt at an almost identical price.
Who Knows? – Nic Maddinson ($11,400 Draftstars)
Maddinson, like a lot of Stars batsmen this year, has been used a bits-and-pieces cricketer. His biggest impact this year has been with the ball (vs. Perth), which sort of shows you how bad his batting has been. As I mentioned though, all the Stars batsmen seem to rotate through doing well on any particular day, so who knows? It could be Maddinson this match. At his price, I’m willing to take the risk.
Love it – Sandeep Lamichhane/Adam Zampa ($17,000/$15,500, Draftstars)
As I mentioned above, if the Stars are to do well in the absence of Coulter-Nile and Rauf, these guys are more than likely going to have to be involved. Both of them have their own particular strengths (Zampa is slightly more economical, while Lamichhane picks up more wickets) so picking between will be tough if you don’t want to own both. My choice would probably be Lamichhane given that Zampa might find it tough to keep his economy down if the track plays well for the batsmen.
Don’t Love it – Marcus Stoinis ($21,300, Draftstars)
He’s just too expensive given the fact he isn’t bowling this year. If you’re building a pro-Melbourne team then you’re put in a position where you almost need to have him but that’s the only time I’d be forking out the cash. He projects at around 37 runs per game, and while that’s great just in terms of batting, it can’t compete with Maxwell or Rashid Khan’s all-round point scoring prowess.
Who Knows? – Glenn Maxwell ($20,800, Draftstars)
Maxwell remains very much a boom or bust player. His scores this year have been (most recent first): 12, 25, DNB, 5*, 83*, 59*, 40*, 1, 0*, 43, 2, 83. It’s easy to say, ‘him getting five not out or not getting a bat isn’t a failure – he comes in down the order’. Well yes, that’s correct in real-world terms, but if you’re looking at it through DFS-tinted glasses, that’s 5 and 0 points generated through runs for his owners. He has five single digit scores, and yet also five scores over 40. Obviously if he goes nuts, you’re going to look very silly, but that $20k could be looking rather sexy if he doesn’t and is highly owned.