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BBL11 Fantasy Tips: Renegades vs Heat
The absolute chaos that is BBL11 in Covid times roles on tonight, with the first leg of our double header seeing the Melbourne Renegades play host to the Brisbane Heat down in Geelong. The Heat are one of the worst hit teams so far, and like the Melbourne Stars, will be littered with players we’ve barely heard of. With the Renegades 2-5 and the Heat 3-5, it’s a chance for either team to put a little distance between them and the Stars at the bottom of the table, and to stay in contention for a finals spot. The Heat won by 5 wickets in their meeting earlier this season.
Just to add to the chaos, unfortunately it looks like a very wet day in Geelong, so the chances of getting a full game in are also slim.
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Expected Renegades Xl: Finch, Marsh, Harper, Maddinson, Harvey, Nabi, Sutherland, Prestwidge, Khan, Richardson, Pattinson, (Fraser-McGurk)
Expected Heat Xl: ??? At the time of writing we have no information on their squad
There is no betting market at the time of writing, with very little information on who is playing for the Heat. The Renegades have lost Reece Topley to international duties for England, but have the likes of James Pattinson and Zak Evans who could come in. The top four looks more solid with Shaun Marsh back and all of Aaron Finch, Nic Maddinson and Sam Harper showing some form lately. Spin bowling internationals Mohammad Nabi and Zahir Khan have both been quiet for a few games now, so the team will be hoping for more output from them to strengthen the bowling.
It's hard to comment on the Heat as we’ll likely see a very different lineup. The all-rounder trio of James Bazley, Xavier Bartlett and Jack Wildermuth have been their strongest area of the game lately, with the batting otherwise struggling. Mark Steketee and Mujeeb Ur Rahman have given the bowling some dependable performances, meaning the team has been competitive in most games.
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It feels like the type of game to stack the Renegades, if the Heat lineup is indeed as depleted as we expect. Nabi strikes me as the best GPP play, as a proven performer all over the world who has averaged 7 in his last 5 games, but historically averaged around 50 in the BBL. With the ability to explode with both bat and ball, I’ll ignore his advanced age and take a shot at him finding some form in a uniquely soft matchup.
Love It - Zahir Khan ($12,900)
I’ll stick with Melbourne’s Afghan spinners, because spin is hugely effective in T20 cricket and against inferior batsmen I can see both spinners having a big impact. Khan started his Renegades career nicely this season, but has averaged 10 in the next 4 games. His career average is 35 in 20+ BBL games, setting him up as another nice value GPP play who has every chance to thrive in this one.
Don’t Love It - Will Sutherland ($9,700)
I have to stick with Renegades players with no news on the Heat team, so I’ll pick on Sutherland. Being so cheap we can possibly expect him to be popular on this slate, but he was subbed out of the last game against the Stars and hasn’t had much of a role this season. He could easily have a decent game and smash his price tag, but it’s worth considering a fade if you expect him to be chalky.
Don’t Love It - Aaron Finch ($17,800)
I’ll pick on Finch again, because he’ll certainly be chalky and can easily fail at this price. In his last 20 BBL games he has scored less than 50 points on 16 occasions, suggesting an 80% chance that he doesn’t even get close to paying off his price tag. The easy matchup and some potentially improved form might ease those odds a little, but I’m still happy to fade a chalky, expensive player who fails more often than not.
Who Knows - The Heat ??
Obviously in this one we need to have a look at who is playing for the Heat and make some late decisions. There will undoubtedly be plenty of cheap players with good roles, we just have to decide if the talent is enough to take advantage of the opportunity.
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