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Crunching Numbers: AFL Round 21 Saturday Slate DFS Lineup Tips
The AFL's 5-game Saturday slate features the Hawks vs Cats, Suns vs Tigers, Power vs Eagles, Magpies vs Lions, and the Giants vs Crows.
There are plenty of great AFL DFS contests around the country to enter on Saturday, highlighted by the $50,000 Guaranteed contest at Draftstars and the qualifiers for the $100,000 Super Contest at PlayON.
As always, the boys at Fantasy Boss have got your AFL fantasy teams covered with all the best plays for Saturday's slate detailed below.
Fantasy gold against the Suns
Gold Coast continue to concede points at a scary rate. They’re averaging 1773 points against in their last 5 games, as well as giving up an average of 5 x 100+ scores over that same time. The only positive in sight is that they come up against the relatively low scoring Tigers this week. Interestingly, only one Richmond player, Dustin Martin (91), is averaging over 90 for the season. With that said it should still bode well for many tigers, especially Defenders and Midfielders where Gold Coast have proven to be extra leaky.
Top 3 midfielders have really cashed in against the Suns recently, posting huge scores regularly. Last week it was Oliver (154) and Brayshaw (143), the week before it was Cripps (162) and Murphy (139).
Dustin Martin fits the bill as a Top 3 midfielder and has the highest ceiling of all Tiger players, which should put him in consideration for your team.
Dion Prestia and Kane Lambert are nicely priced and both are in form with last 5 averages 94 and 93, respectively.
Baschar Houli is named for only his 2nd game in the past 10 rounds and with a soft match-up down back it could be the perfect way to easy back in to it, especially at his price. Unfortunately, this will mean the much publicised pairing of Houli and Jayden Short will now play in the same team, which could spell trouble for Short’s scoring.
Brandon Ellis loves a favourable match-up and has a last 5 average of 82, +8 on his season average. This actually places Ellis as the highest averaging back for Richmond across this time.
Jack Graham’s average of 64 may not jump off the page but before injury struck in Round 16, Graham had strung together 3 x 70+ scores and was well on his way to his second 100 for the year when he scored 67 from just 51% of the game.
Backs vs Collingwood
After all seven Swans defenders scored 75+ against Collingwood last week, the Pies are well and truly on our radar coming in at Number 2, behind GC, in our FB DFR match-up ranking for defenders. Against the swans they conceded the following:
In their Round 16 game against Carlton, another favourable back match-up, Brisbane defenders scored the following: Gardiner (118), Witherden (116), Hodge (112) Rich (109). Look for much of the same this week, especially considering the form these players find themselves in.
Alex Witherden has an last 5 average of 103, +13 on his season average.
Luke Hodge has an last 5 average of 93, +17 on his season average.
Darcy Gardiner has an last 5 average of 79, +17 on his season average.
Tough Midfield Match-Ups
Last Sunday we were treated to the top three midfield match-ups with relation to Points Against and it didn’t disappoint, with the midfielders from GWS, Melbourne and West Coast all cashing in. This slate is quite the opposite, and baring the Gold Coast match-up, we’re faced with sifting through the 13th (Coll), 14th (WCE), 15th (Bris) and 16th (GWS) ranked teams to score on in the midfield. Tread carefully!
Brodie Grundy's price tag of $17,830 is just too much to pay for a ruckman coming up against Brisbane and Stef Martin. They have conceded an average of just 71 points all season, reducing that to a measly 65 points in the last 5 games.
On the other hand, Gold Coast ruckman, Jarrod Witts, comes up against a nice match-up that becomes even more favourable with the inclusion of Soldo for Nankervis. Witts should monster the hit-outs and finds himself in great scoring form around the ground. He has a last 5 average of 108, including scores of 132, 124 and 114 in that time.
Adam Oxley will play his first game since 2016 and is a proven scorer in the past. He averaged 72 from 17 games in 2015 and 70 from 12 games in 2016. He should push well past his value this week.
Pearce Hanley and Brodie Smith came in to their respective teams last week. For the same reason as outlined in last week’s article around their historical averages, there is no reason both can’t get close to the magical 10x value again on Saturday.
All of the stats and information used in this article has been provided by the team at Fantasy Boss - one of the pioneers for DFS data in Australia. Remember that all projections are merely based off the statistical data provided and we can not guarantee player scores or success in your DFS contests, but we think this information should give you a good head start! Good luck!