Bay Hill Arnold Palmer Invitational

The PGA tour continues the Florida swing with the par 72 Bay Hill course hosting this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. A strong invited field of 122 will tee it up on the long 7,419 yards with the cut at 70 plus ties. With more than half field playing the weekend after the cut, it is a popular tournament with the Players tournament the following week. Like most Florida courses, water and bunkers are the key features of the course with strategic dog-leg holes making it a tough course to get around, but the course is known for its lightning fast Bermuda greens. The field is stacked with great golfers and with these dog-legs, a lot of holes will require long iron approach shots from at least 175+ yards out. I will be targeting the following key statistics: Strokes gained on approach, strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained on putting (Golf can be so simple if we can nail all three statistics).

DraftKings has been the number 1 site for DFS Golf and it is no surprise that this week’s contest at $600,000 for a $5 entry fee is the main feature. There is also the $25,000 Short Game contest for $1 entry fee and the popular $15,000 mini-MAX for $0.50 fee per line-up. At Moneyball the $500 main contest is available for a $10 entry.

Note Tiger Woods has withdrawn from the event due to a neck complaint. Let’s have a look who I am targeting at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Jason Day – ($9,900 DK $7,900 MB) I am bullish on Day’s chances of winning this tournament after the withdrawal of Woods. Day has won at Bay Hill before and is coming in hot with Top 25’s dating back to last year’s FedEx playoffs. Dig deeper and Day has T5’s in consecutive events on the tour. Day’s success has come with the putter, with Day currently 13th is strokes gained from the putter this season and 6th from strokes off the tee. If Day can nail his approach shots (which has been a struggle) then we have a winner…

Hideki Matsuyama – ($9,300 DK $7,400 MB) Another golfer I am keen on is Hideki as he has been really consistent. Has not missed a cut for a long time (15 events to be exact) and has had 8 top 15 finishes in these events this season. Matsuyama fits the stats by rating very high in strokes gained from tee to green (ranked 2nd in this week’s field) and all we need is for Matsuyama to be great with the putter. Course history shows he hasn’t missed a cut in 4 appearances as well.

Rafa Cabrera Bello – ($7,500 DK $6,000 MB) Mr Consistent is again another pick for me this week as I feel RCB is starting to gain attention in the fantasy community. RCB has posted three T25’s in a row whilst flirting with T10’s in each of these starts. The price tag is particularly cheap (almost too cheap) and the key statistic of putting, where RCB is currently ranked 23rd for Strokes gained from putting on the tour, is a big tick for me. 

Si Woo Kim – ($7,800 DK $6,200 MB) If we are going to have quick greens then I need to target a great putter. Enter Si Woo Kim. On this year’s tour Kim is 4th in Strokes gained from Putting, 2nd in Putting Average (1.68) 4th in one-putt average and 18th in 3-putt avoidance (1.85%). With Kim being real hot with the putter, his performances have showed great finishes at the Genesis (3rd) and a T4 at Pebble Beach. Just need Kim to improve off the tee where he currently ranks low in driver accuracy (ranked 150th).

Talor Gooch – ($6,800 DK $5,400 MB) Gooch is my value play this week after he made a 26th finish at the event last year, so I am looking for him to build on his past result. In his past 5 events this season Gooch has three T20’s but he has also missed two cuts as well. With a higher chance to make the cut this week, I can see some punt potential for a good high finish.

Tommy Fleetwood – ($9,100 DK $7,300 MB) Fleetwood is my scary fade this week and I am banking on the Bay Hill greens to play tricks with Fleetwood. Whilst his chances of making the cut are still high (and his history of making cuts is also high), I feel the salary is a bit too high with the calibre of this week’s field. Fleetwood will be highly owned in cash line-ups and I’m hoping for a few bogeys for Mr Fleetwood this week. 


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