Bethpage Black in Long Island

What was once the 4th and last golf major, the PGA championship has been moved to May and becomes the 2nd major for 2019. Bethpage Black in Long Island New York is the host of the 2019 edition, a Par 70 7,425 yard test where the course boasts a “recommended for highly skilled golfers only” sign at the start of the course. Usually a par 71, the 7th hole has been re-graded to a Par 4 at over 500+ yards. This is a brutal and long course. The bunkers are deep and there is many of them. There has been a big debate on the conditions of the rough this week. Whilst the rough was not knee high when it hosted the US open in 2009, there is debate at the length this time around and on how thick it should be. Another variable is the abnormal weather the New York state area has received. High rainfall as limited preparations and you will find that less roll out from drives on fairways will help the bombers. As to whether this rainfall has limited the greens, that still remains to be seen.

The top 100 golfers are here at Bethpage and, with a cut of 70 after two rounds, it is going to be difficult to narrow down the strong 156 golfer field. However, the tournament also hosts 20 of the PGA Club Pro’s. You can safely discount these golfers because, as history suggests, only one club professional has finished inside the top 20 in the last 30 years, Jay Overton in 1988! Digging deeper, only 1 of these “pros” made the cut last year.

DFS Golf experts Smatho and Jayk are back with the newest instalment of our DFR Podcast to run you through all the best plays for the PGA Championship!

According to - Bethpage is a brute of a course which requires length, accuracy and scrambling. We do however need to concentrate on these key statistics:

(In Order of Importance)

1) Strokes Gained Approach

2) Bogey Avoidance

3) Strokes Gained Off the Tee (or Total Driving)

4) Strokes Gained Around the Green (or Scrambling)

5) Strokes Gained Putting (Emphasis on Poa)

DraftKings is the home of DFS golf and for the PGA Championship, the $3 million Fantasy Golf Millionaire is available for a $20 entry fee where the winner is credited with 1 million dollars. Various other massive contests are available including $500,000 Fore at $4 per entry and the $30,000 Single entry Caddie for a $6 entry.

Moneyball in Australia has posted a $9,000 contest with a $20 buy-in and at Draftstars, a $8,000 contest is available at an entry of $15.

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Let’s have a look who I am targeting at the PGA Championship!

Top 4

Tiger Woods - $11,300 DK $23,000 DS $9,000 MB

Dustin Johnson - $11,100 DK $22,800 DS $8,900 MB

Rory McIlroy - $10,900 DK $20,800 DS $8,700 MB

Brooks Koepka - $10,400 DK $22,600 DS $8,300 MB

I have put the big 4 together because all have legitimate chances to win the championship. Woods is number 1 in the field for Greens in Regulation on the tour, and will no doubt talk up his history (winner of the US Open in 2001 and 6th in 2009 at the same course). Johnson has become the new vegas favourite and has the game to overcome the course conditions. 1st in Bogey avoidance and 2nd in the field for SG:Total. 2nd in the field for Sand Save percentage is another good stat. For McIlroy the statistics look fantastic. 1st SG:Total, 1st SG:Off the tee, 1st SG: Tee to Green. The stat that is lacking at the moment is the putter, if McIlroy can get the putter working here then he is a big show for the title. For Koepka, a leisurely stroll around Trinity forest last week posted 24 birdies and 1 eagle. This is a different test, but Koepka’s major record is impeccable and, for the defending champion, going back to back is a very real possibility.

I’m going to have a little DJ and Rory and not going near Tiger.

High price below the top 4.

With such a strong field, there is so many great options available. World number 2 Justin Rose ($9,900 DK $19,100 DS $7,900 MB) leads the field for Putting and 6th in the field for scrambling. Francesco Molinari ($9,700 DK $18,500 DS $7,800 MB) would dearly love to show the world that the Masters final round was just a blimp. You can’t go wrong on Matt Kuchar, Jason Day, Tommy Fleetwood, Sergio Garcia… The list goes on and on but there are 4 golfers that can beat the top 4 and win this week.

Jon Rahm ($9,500 DK $19,500 DS $7,600 MB) - Rahm is 2nd in the field for SG: Off the tee, Rahm is coming off a 9th and 6th place in individual events, and a win the pairs event at the Zurich Classic. Rahm is a big chance to break through for his first major. Big off the tee and crafty around the greens.

Rickie Fowler ($9,300 DK $18,800 DS $7,400 MB) - We want to be with Rickie when he finally wins a major, and with his statistics trending in the right direction, the PGA could be the perfect way to break through. He was 7th at the course back in 2017 and will be accurate from tee to green around the course. I like his price this week on the sites.

Xander Schauffele ($9,100 DK $18,100 DS $7,300 MB) - After a fantastic T2 at the Masters, the X man has the taste to hoist his first major trophy aloft. Whilst the statistics are not on the same level as the golfers above, there is no obvious flaw that would be ruining Schauffele around Bethpage this week. Great bet at top 10 if the big boys dominate.

Bryson DeChambeau ($8,900 DK $17,800 DS $7,100 MB) - Yes the mad scientist is another I am keen on as he showed after the 1st round of the Masters, the man with the cheese cutter hat can methodically breakdown the course and execute. From the lock arm grip to putt to analysing the air density when knocking them from 150 yards, DeChambeau will no doubt be in contention for the weekend. 

For value there are a couple of obvious plays:

Scott Piercy ($6,500 DK $10,300 DS $5,200 MB) - For a golfer who comes T2 at a tournament without a bogey is a remarkable achievement. Yes the Byron Nelson is a different tournament to the PGA but salaries were released on DK before the result of Piercy. Piercy has also gone 13/14 cuts this year as well. For a tournament where 6 out of 6 is King let’s pin our hopes on Piercy. 

Jhonattan Vegas ($7,100 DK $13,000 DS $5,700 MB) - I like Johnny Vegas here, he has had tremendous season on tour. He hired a mental performance coach in the offseason to help him stay confident and to not overreact after a bad shot or a bad round. He hasn’t finished outside of the top 30 in his last six events and he’s coming off of a T8 finish at the Wells Fargo Championship. He gains a lot of strokes off the tee and is ranked 15th in this field in bogey avoidance.

Other sneaky Value plays:

DraftKings - Webb Simpson $7,500 and Rafa Cabrera Bello $7,300

Draftstars - Chez Reavie $8,900, Kiradech Aphibarnrat $10,700 and Russell Knox $10,300

Moneyball - Dylan Frittelli - $5,000 and Julian Suri $5,100

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The Daily Fantasy Rankings "Dragon" has scoured the Australian sports betting markets and found some great value picks for this event. Check out his picks for the day below and click on the links to follow his betting plays!

Dragon's Picks Odds Sportsbook
Scott Piercy - Top 20 $7.00 Bet now at Sportsbet!
Padraig Harrington - To miss the cut $1.57 Bet now at Neds!
Jon Rahm - Top Continental European Player $3.50 Bet now at BetEasy!
Bryson DeChambeau - Top 5 $8.00 Bet now at Pointsbet!


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