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NFL 2020-21 Daily Fantasy Tips: Week 3
Welcome back to DFR’s weekly previews for the NFL for the 2020 season! After a pretty disastrous weekend for injuries last week, let's move onto Week 3! Each week myself and Tom will be providing written previews for slates in the NFL providing our fantasy plays and strategy to tackle the big world of Daily Fantasy NFL. Each week we will provide the one mega article so make sure you keep referring to this weekly article as each week progresses.
So in my mind, Week 3 can be tricky as we have some games and data to lean on but the teams have not been “figured out” yet. You might think the New York Jets are trash but they might come out and win by 14+ this week, so tread carefully! Commencing on Friday morning in Australia, we have the Intrastate matchup between the Miami Dolphins and the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Dolphins (0-2) are still searching for their first win of the season, while the Jaguars (1-1) lost at the death in Week 2 to the Titans.
Daily Fantasy Sites Draftstars and DraftKings are back with a variety of contests to suit every style and budget on Friday. Starting with Draftstars, the Single “Flex” contest is available with the main contest is a $10,000 for a $15 entry. A mini contest is also available for an entry of $2.
On DraftKings, there are various types of Showdown contests in the lobby highlighted by the $1,500,000 Thursday Night Special where 1st prize is $300,000! Entry into this contest is $10 USD per entry. There are plenty of contests on DraftKings including, single, 3 entry max and 20 entry max contests.
Thursday Night Football
Miami Dolphins @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1020 AEST Friday)
Total - 48.0
Spread - JAC -3.0
DJ Chark did not practice on Wednesday and is questionable with a chest injury. He was ruled out by the team on Thursday.
WR DJ Chark Jr. (chest/ back) has been downgraded to OUT and will not play in tonight’s game.— #DUUUVAL (@Jaguars) September 24, 2020
While it is a small sample size and I did caution that Week 3 can be a bit funky but these two teams are 31st and 32nd against the pass and 27th (Miami) and 32nd (Jacksonville) for DVOA (Defense-adjusted Over Average). So these teams' secondary defenses are the worst in the league, so when it comes to these showdown/flex slates we need to target QB/WR/TE in this matchup.
The Dolphins have a run-share at running back with Jordan Howard, Matt Brieda and Myles Gaskin rotating the snaps. While Brieda and Gaskin are more fantasy friendly by receiving targets only the 2nd-year Gaskin could be in play if the targets continue. This is probably a spot you may want to avoid.
One of note, back-up Quarterback for the Dolphins Tua Tagovailoa is priced up on DraftKings at $10,000 in the Flex spot (flat minimum on Draftstars). So far there hasn’t been any rumblings of a change at QB but you just never know in these prime time spots. For now Ryan Fitzpatrick is the QB1.
Champ - Mike Gesicki (Dolphins)
Gesicki had a huge game against the Bills last week securing 8 receptions on 11 targets for 130 yards plus a TD and now gets the 29th ranked defence at the TE position. While this could be an outlier for Gesicki, the high game total and leaky defences point to another big performance from the TE. A good consideration for the Captain spot on DraftKings.
Chance - Laviska Shenault (Jaguars)
The Jags really like this rookie as a hybrid style rushing and receiving back. With DJ Chalk out this could ramp up Shenault’s usage after rushing five times for 37 yards and catching 3 receptions from 4 targets in week 2. Shenault should relish this matchup against a bad defense and is at value on both sites.
Cheapie - Chris Conley (Jaguars)
With QB Gardner Minshew throwing the ball 45 times last week, Conley was on the end of 7 targets for 4 receptions. Obviously, we need a bit of shootout to breakout for players such as Conley for the Jags and the slightly more expensive Isaiah Ford for the Dolphins. However these two are capable of multiple targets and TD upside.
Chump - Chris Thompson (Jaguars)
Outside of a 14 yard TD reception in the 4th quarter last week, Thompson was non-existent for the Jags as James Robinson has established himself as the main RB. While he is cheap enough to roster in your final flex spot, I’ll be looking elsewhere.
Monday Morning Slate
Week 3 brings us another lucrative $25,000 prize pool to battle for on Draftstars. We’re starting to get a good idea of who is hot and who is not this season, but it’s still early and we should not get sucked into believing everything we’ve seen so far. Let’s get into some plays.
Players out Sunday include George Kittle, Jimmy Garoppolo, Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert, Dee Ford, A.J. Brown, Zack Moss, Cam Akers, Jalen Reagor, Geno Atkins, James White, Henry Ruggs, A.J. Terrell, Christian McCaffrey, Tyrod Taylor, Drew Lock, Christian Kirk, Michael Thomas.— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 27, 2020
Prescott/Wilson: One trend that has existed through both weeks and should continue is the Cowboys and Seahawks teams being involved in high scoring affairs. Now they play each other, and this game is likely to be the most popular stacking option on the slate. If you want to stack this game and be different you need to use at least 2/3 of the receiving options listed below paired with either of these talented QBs.
Kyler Murray: Detroit have been a fairly soft matchup so far, and now it’s the turn of the Cardinals, have looked dangerous in both of their wins. Murray is a dual-threat QB with his dangerous running ability, which means we might only need to find one teammate to pair him with and hope that he can run in another TD or two.
Matt Stafford: The Cardinals D isn’t exactly elite either, so this game has some potential to shoot out, which means Stafford is also in play. He hasn’t looked great so far this season, but we saw how prolific he can be last year prior to a back injury. I’m willing to take a punt on him here with preferred target Kenny Golladay likely to be back in some capacity.
Derrick Henry: I was one of the many who were all over Derrick last week…it did not turn out well. This week he has another reasonably easy matchup in the form of the banged up Vikings Defence. With AJ Brown out again, there is a reasonable chance that the Titans lean heavily on the running again if they can get ahead in the game. It’s not a sure thing, but we know from last season how damaging he can be, and I want to keep investing in him until he explodes once again.
Jerrick McKinnon: After a couple of injury ruined seasons, Jerrick is looking back to something near his best, with two encouraging performances so far. With Raheem Mostert out this week, he has the opportunity to get a little extra work against the lowly Giants. Anything over 15 points would be a very nice value play at almost basement price.
Austin Ekeler: Another top RB who was excellent last season but hasn’t started fast in this young season so far. Ekeler gets a nice matchup against the soft Panthers D who have given up big games to Josh Jacobs and Leonard Fournette so far. One concern for his output was the running game of QB Tyrod Taylor. Herbert still has a solid running game, but last week showed us that Ekeler should get plenty of work, he just needs to land a TD or two.
Lockett/Metcalf/Cooper/Gallup/Lamb: As I said above, all of these Cowboys and Seahawks options are likely to be popular plays, but using several of them in the one lineup could still be enough to be different if the game does shootout as expected.
Corey Davis: AJ Brown is missing again this week, which means Davis should be the Titans #1 target in an easy matchup. He looks like he’s taken another step in his gradual development this season, and at minimum price it’s not much of a risk to hope for a modest stat line and a TD.
Deandre Hopkins: It wasn’t too hard to find that one Cardinals teammate to pair with Kyler Murray. Kenyan Drake is also a good option, but it’s hard to go past Hopkins who is off to a prolific start to his Cardinals career. He’s also a great play as a standalone option.
Zach Ertz: The Eagles have been ordinary so far, and Ertz has yet to explode. A matchup against the lowly Bengals D is the perfect time to turn things around. Ertz and teammate Dallas Goedert are close to the Eagles top 2 targets in a TE heavy offense, and I think either of them could be in for a huge day. I slightly prefer the massive historical upside Ertz has shown.
Tyler Higbee: Higbee had a massive 3 TD performance last week, but comes up against a stingier Bills D this week. Despite that he’s still fairly cheap for a player that has shown plenty at the back end of last season and now early this season. He’s not my favourite option, but he cannot be ignored entirely.
TJ Hockenson: If I’m playing Stafford at QB, then I like the idea of pairing him with Hockenson. He’s yet to fully break out, but he has shown the ability to put up some nice stat lines, and the Cardinals D has been one of the better TE matchups in recent seasons.
DEF: I’m only going to recommend one D this week, and that is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Their offense hasn’t fully taken off just yet, but the fact that Tom Brady controls the ball better than their previous QBs is very advantageous for the D, and now they get a very soft matchup against the Broncos and backup QB Jeff Driskel. It is a tough ask to travel to Denver and play at altitude, but I’m willing to overlook that factor in this scenario.
Final Word: Don’t forget to stack your QBs with one or two of their receivers, it’s almost always the recipe used by winning lineups. Good Luck!
When a schedule comes out from the league you immediately look at when the Chiefs and the Ravens play each other. We didn’t have to wait long with these two exciting teams clashing on Monday Night Football (Tuesday morning AEST) in week 3.
Draftstars have posted a $10,000 featured contest for this game.
DraftKings as always has a variety of contests headlined by the $2.25M Monday Night Showdown with $1,000,000USD 1st prize!
Game time: Tuesday 29/9 @ 10:15 AM AEST
Game line: Ravens - 3.5
Sammy Watkins is Questionable on the Chiefs Injury report but is trending towards after a concussion/neck injury in week 2.
Sammy Watkins, a full participant at Chiefs practice today.... #MNF— Steve Levy (@espnSteveLevy) September 26, 2020
Both teams are 2-0 to start the season and the Ravens are putting on plenty of points averaging 35 points per game. Quarterback and reigning MVP Lamar Jackson has already thrown 4 TD’s without a pick and rushed for 99 yards through 2 games. Whereas SuperBowl winning QB Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 5 TD’s and rushed for 54 yards through 2 games. These two QB’s will be the showpiece of this matchup and for fantasy contests they will be extremely high owned in Flex/Showdown contests.
It is highly likely you want both QB’s in your Flex lineup. Thus you need to find some value here. Let’s see what we can dig out.
Champ - Lamar Jackson (Ravens)
If you just went the one QB route then I would lean Jackson over Mahomes. Jackson currently leads the team in rushing and his receiving targets are less predictable for correlation. Jackson threw balls to 9 different receivers/backs in Week 2 with Marquise Brown catching 5 of those (leads team). His ability to run and have TD upside from rushing is more of a fantasy “safe” play but also to lead the game in scoring.
Chance - Marquise Brown (Ravens)
Of course we need to correlate our QB pick with a receiver and Brown is the one that stands out for TD potential. Through 2 games Brown has caught 5 balls from 6 targets (leads team) and comes up against a Chiefs defense that is still suspect in the Secondary (although has improved via a small sample in 2020). Brown is the deep-ball threat of the Ravens and is a chance to go big here.
Cheapie - Demarcus Robinson (Chiefs)
I really struggled to have confidence in finding a value play but I have landed on Robinson. We only need a big play from Robinson down field or a least redzone potential to pay off the small salary. However with Kelce, Hill and Edwards-Helaire all weapons for the Chiefs and the likely healthy status of Sammy Watkins, we are hoping for a small glimmer of hope here.
Chump - DST for both teams
It is tempting to get the salary savings to roster a DST from either side, but with a 53+ game line there is potential for negative scoring. While the Ravens defence has been great on the fantasy front (15 points each game), these offences for both teams are just simply too good. Rarely do Mahomes and Jackson are picked off and with sacks only 1 fantasy point each, I’ll be surprised if a DST is in the winning lineup.
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