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NFL 2022-23 Daily Fantasy Tips: Divisional Round
Only four games this week, with two game slates on Sunday and Monday (Australian time). Given this, we will change up the article this week, taking a look at both slates and giving you a suggestion from each position on each day. We will also select a team from each slate, to give you an idea of what we are liking this weekend.
On Sunday, we kick things off with the AFC #1 seed Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars. This game has the highest total of the week and biggest spread, which is something to keep in mind when picking your squads. Next up, an NFC East rivalry, as the New York Giants head to Philadelphia to take on a rested Philadelphia Eagles.
On Monday morning, we are treated to two absolutely cracking contests, on paper at least. First, the reigning AFC Champion Cincinnati Bengals head to Buffalo to take on the Bills, in a rematch of sorts between the two AFC powerhouses. Finally, the Cowboys head west to take on the San Francisco 49ers, in the game of the week for mine.
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Patrick Mahomes (Sunday) - $18,210
Mahomes gets a quality matchup this week against a Jaguars defence that ranks 25th at quarterback fantasy points allowed per game. Mahomes torched the Jaguars in week 10, going 26/35 for 331 yards, throwing 4 touchdowns and rushing for 39 yards. Expect more of the same, with the Chiefs 9.5-point favourites over the Jags after a week off last week as the #1 seed, whilst the Jags had to spend a whole lot of energy to come back and win over the Chargers.
Dak Prescott (Monday) - $15,370
I’ve got to believe the Prescott we saw over the last few weeks of the regular season was the Cowboys taking it easy. Dak and the Cowboys looked 100x better last week, as they destroyed the Buccaneers on the back of 305 yards and 4 touchdowns from Prescott. This week, Dak and the Cowboys take on a secondary that has given up it’s fair share of explosive plays this season, the 49ers. Whilst the 49ers defence is elite, it’s based more on the front 7, who are tremendous at getting to the quarterback, but if the Cowboys can protect Dak I expect him to go big here.
Miles Sanders (Sunday) - $9,460
I’m playing on the Eagles once again running the football straight down the throat of the Giants here. Sanders has been quiet over the past month, but should be well rested. Sanders will also benefit from the return of Lane Johnson, one of the best right tackles in the game, particularly in the run game. If Hurts can get things going early in the pass game, it will open the run game up nicely for Sanders. Is always likely to get plenty of touches, we’ve just got to hope he does something with them.
Christian McCaffrey (Monday) - $16,780
Run CMC has gone back to being the best player in fantasy since coming to the 49ers in a mid-season trade with the Carolina Panthers. He took a little while to get going, however with 4 scores in the past 6 weeks over 24.5, he’s someone you’ve just got to have in your squad. This matchup features the two best rushing defences in the league per DVOA, but McCaffrey is matchup proof, and I trust him to get plenty of volume in the run and pass game, enough to score you 25+. Touchdowns in his last 7 games shows the consistency of his touches in the redzone too.
Kadarius Toney (Sunday) - $7,730
Speculative, but cheap and on the offense with the highest expected total this weekend. Toney has slowly but surely become a focal point on this Chiefs offense, particularly in the redzone. But Toney isn’t just a scatback, trickery type player. He has elite speed and can make a player miss. I have a sneaking suspicion Head Coach Andy Reid has some tasty plays drawn up for Toney during the playoffs. He kicked it off last week with the ‘ring around the rosie’ play, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some other plays illustrating Toney’s talents this week.
Deebo Samuel (Monday) - $13,050
This guy is just built different. I can’t remember the last time I saw Deebo get tackled by the first guy who got to him. Deebo gets a good matchup this week, with the Cowboys conceding the 5th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. There’s a chance Trevon Diggs lines up on Samuel, which could limit his targets, however Diggs is extremely aggressive and is always a chance at completely blowing a coverage in the chance at an interception. This is where Deebo can go 90 yards to the house. Pick him and sit back and watch.
Travis Kelce (Sunday) - $16,840
Playoff time means Kelce time. The Jags have been horrible at defending tight ends this season, and I see a big game for Kelce in the Divisional round. Kelce had a (relatively) quiet game against the Jags in week 10, with 6 receptions for 81 yards and a touchdown. I expect this to be a minimum output for Kelce this week, with the Chiefs’ tight end a playoff master. A note however, if you have a feeling the Jaguars are going to give the Chiefs a run, hold off on Kelce. I trust the Chiefs and will be stacking them heavily, so the $35,000 outlay on Mahomes and Kelce is worth it to me.
Dalton Schultz (Monday) - $9,780
This is a play of me seeing the Cowboys getting what they want in the passing game against an average 49ers secondary. If the 49ers front 7 can get to Dak, this is going to be a rough week for Cowboys’ backers, but I’m willing to bet on the Cowboys getting theirs in the passing game. Schultz is Dak’s 2nd favourite target behind Ceedee Lamb, and gets heavy usage in the redzone and endzone. He’s had three games this season with 2 touchdowns, and if he can manage that again this week, you’ll be loving life.
Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday) - $5,900
The Chiefs D/ST units have been consistently putting up decent scores, however this selection isn’t really about the Chiefs. We all saw Trevor Lawrence throwing 4 interceptions in the first half last week, and whilst I don’t think we will see that again here, surely the Chiefs are good for at least one or two turnovers in this game. I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see the Jags put 20+ points on the board, however with the turnover potential and the chance to get to the quarterback high for the Chiefs, I like this play, with the Chiefs being the 2nd most expensive option in this slate.
Cincinnati Bengals - $4,920
The cheapest option at D/ST in this slate, however the turnover worthy plays by Josh Allen lately have been too frequent for mine, giving the Bengals defensive unit a good chance at points this week. Last week, we had the Bengals in our D/ST slot, and they didn’t disappoint, scoring 13 points off the back of 1 interception and 1 fumble recovered for a touchdown. There’s talk of weather affecting this game, with snow and wind predicted, so don’t be surprised to see points at a premium in this one either.
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