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NFL 2022-23 Daily Fantasy Tips: Week 10
Another 10 game Monday slate greets us for week 10 in the National Football League, with 7 early games and 3 late games. It seems to be that this is the weekend in the United States where the weather is changing, and with the effect the weather can have on scoring in the NFL, it is vital to keep abreast of the weather conditions. Week 9 was highlighted by the breakout performance of Bears Quarterback Justin Fields, who went nuts for the Bears, scoring 45.7 points, and the 5-touchdown performance by Bengals running back Joe Mixon. Who will be the breakout star this week?
Scoring was down at an average of 42.2 across the Monday slate last week, and this was despite 2-games going over 60, showing that scoring is once again down across the league. This slate has an average total of 43.5, with only 3 totals lined above 45. With the added weather, this could be a very low scoring weekend of football.
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Justin Fields - $12,900
Fields is legit. Last week was a coming out party for the 2nd year quarterback, as he put on an offensive masterpiece against the Dolphins. Despite the Bears losing, Fields threw for 123 yards and 3 touchdowns, whilst rushing for a staggering 178 yards and a touchdown. Fields is QB3 in fantasy since week 3, behind only Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. He gets a great matchup this week, with the Lions giving up the 3rd most points to opposing QBs, the second most rushing yards to QBs, whilst conceding the highest EPA per dropback and fourth highest success rate per dropback to opposing QBs. Fields is him.
Patrick Mahomes - $15,700
Can you say MVP? Mahomes single-handedly took over the game last week against the Titans, throwing 68 times for 446 yards, whilst also recording one touchdown and one pick. Mahomes was also the leading rusher for the Chiefs, by some margin, rushing for 63 yards and touchdown. This week, he gets a matchup with a Jaguars defence that sets up beautifully for this new Chiefs offense. The Jaguars are ranked 27th in DVOA against short passing, give up the 4th most Yards After Catch (YAC), and are first in missed tackles allowed. Watch for plenty of underneath routes to Travis Kelce and Juju Smith-Schuster, and for Mahomes to once again throw for 350+ yards.
Saquon Barkley - $18,750
Barkley will be fresh after the bye last week, and this week gets the best possible matchup for running backs, as the Giants take on the Texans. The Texans currently concede over 150 yards per game rushing, by far the worst in the league. The Texans are also bottom 4 in the league in rushing EPA per play allowed, and explosive run rate allowed. They allow the most points to running backs in fantasy in the league, and this week get the 3rd most prolific rusher in the NFL this season. If Barkley can manage a touchdown or 2, look out for a mammoth score.
Travis Etienne Jr. - $12,180
There are some quality running backs with good matchups this week, and Etienne is right near the top of that list. He has improved his score in each of the past 4 weeks, and is now the undeniable RB1, with James Robinson shipped off to the Jets prior to the trade deadline. Surprisingly, the Chiefs are in the bottom ¼ of the league in points allowed to running backs in fantasy. Watch for the Jags to get Etienne more involved in the passing game this week, as the Chiefs have really struggled in this area over the past month. In a game that is currently lined as the highest total on this slate, expect Etienne to score well once again.
Dameon Pierce - $11,060
Pierce has shown this season that he is a legitimate RB1 in NFL, and in fantasy. The Texans’ offense runs through Pierce, as outlined by his ranking of 10th in opportunity share, 11th in weighted opportunity, and 16th in snap share. Pierce is a beast that often requires several defenders to bring him down. He gets a tremendous matchup this week, as he takes on a Giants rush defence that ranks 26th in rushing yards per game, 25th in EPA per rush, and 28th in explosive run rate allowed. Expect Pierce to get plenty of touches, plenty of yards, and hopefully a touchdown or two for his fantasy owners.
Tyreek Hill - $19,040
The 2nd most expensive player in this slate, and in my opinion that’s a bargain. Tyreek Hill has been shredding defences this year, averaging 122.7 yards per game this season. His statistical rankings are off the charts, ranking 1st in target per route run share and deep targets, 2nd in target share, and 5th in air yard share. This week, he gets a Browns defence that is zone heavy, which Hill eats up. In yet another statistic where he ranks 1st in the NFL, Hill currently sits first in PFF grade for receivers against zone coverage, and 1st in yards per route run against zone. ‘Cheetah’ is a cheat code, and there is not a defence in the NFL that appears to be able to stop him.
Juju Smith-Schuster - $12,040
We’ve had JSS in a couple of our write-ups and teams lately, and he has repaid the faith. He is averaging 24.2 over the past 3 weeks, with Mahomes clearly finding a rhythm with his new WR1, after a few slow games to get going. In that 3-game span, he has also averaged 8.3 targets, 7.3 receptions and 108.3 receiving yards per game. Mahomes seems to really like finding Smith-Schuster in the redzone, which can only be good for scores. Smith-Schuster is a YAC machine, and as outlined above in the Mahomes blurb, the Jaguars struggle mightily against this. Expect a solid performance and a score worthy of a low end WR1 this week.
Chris Olave - $11,360
Olave has quickly established himself as a legit WR1 in this league. Olave leads all wide receivers in deep targets, whilst ranking 4th in air yard share and 15th in target share. This week Olave gets a good matchup, coming up against a Steelers defence that has conceded the most points per game to wide receivers, most yards per game, and most touchdowns to wide receivers. Given he is the only legitimate wide receiver on this roster, Olave has a great chance to breakout against the Steelers. Really solid floor with the chance to have a high ceiling this week, Olave is a high-end WR2.
Travis Kelce - $16,820
With Mark Andrews injured and the Ravens on the bye, Kelce is the ONLY legit TE1 in this slate. Kelce would be ranked 6th in points per game as a wide receiver in this slate, ahead of the likes of Davante Adams and Jaylen Waddle, showing you just how dominant the big Chief is. Kelce leads the NFL in redzone targets, and this week gets the team ranked 32nd in the league in DVOA against tight ends in the Jaguars. He is, however, $7,800 more than the next most expensive tight end, so if you want to pick him up, he needs to score you high-end WR1 type numbers, or you’re better off saving some money at the position.
Cole Kmet - $5,460
Kmet is at the other end of the spectrum, however, offers a decent upside if he continues his form from last week. Kmet had easily his best game last week, catching 5 of 6 targets for 41 yards and 2 touchdowns. He’s not going to get it done with volume, like several other tight end options, however he is now an obvious redzone target for Justin Fields. He also gets a good matchup this week, with the Lions ranking 24th in DVOA against tight ends, and fourth most receiving touchdowns to tight ends. Is a bit of a gamble, given the low target share and volume, however with a high total in this one (48.5), Kmet has every chance at another touchdown or two.
Minnesota Vikings - $4,000
Ok, so they take on the Bills this week, so this is a bit of a gamble, however there is a very good chance Josh Allen either misses out this weekend, or he is limited in what he can do. Add to that, there is a chance at snow and wind in this one, so a Vikings defence that is currently 6th in the league in takeaways, can definitely produce a solid score in this one. If Allen is confirmed out, this is a cracking play, but even if he’s in I don’t mind it. The Bills are currently the 4th worst team in the NFL for turnovers, giving up 14 so far this season, and that’s with a fully fit Allen under center. I just think, for the price, it’s worth a crack.
Dallas Cowboys - $6,440
This Cowboys defence is top 3 in the league, if not top 1, and they come up against a Packers offense that is dreadful. Aaron Rodgers appears to have given up on the season, throwing 3 horrible interceptions last week. A patched up offensive line will also excite Cowboys truthers, with Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence ready to pounce on Rodgers for sacks. The Cowboys average the most points of any D/ST in this slate, have 2 scores over 20 and 3 more over 10. If you’ve got the money, lock them in.
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