No byes in week 12, as the NFL deals with Thanksgiving week, and our Monday slate has 7 early games and 4 late games to select our teams from. There’ll no doubt be some sluggish performances from home teams this week, with the post-Thanksgiving Day hangover no doubt effecting some players.

The average total points scored last week in this slate was down again, this time down to 40.4 points per game. This was in large part to two games on the slate, where only 29 points total were scored over these two matchups. The scores were all high on Thanksgiving, so let’s hope for some high scores this week. The average total in the markets for this slate currently sits at 42.9, with a number of the games predicted to be low scoring.

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Patrick Mahomes - $16,850

With Justin Fields likely out this week, Patrick Mahomes is QB1 in fantasy with a bullet. Mahomes has 4-straight games above 30 points, and has crossed this mark in 5 of his last 6 matches. This week, Mahomes comes up against a Rams team that is done for the season, and the defence appears to be quite miffed at the way the offense has played so far. That’s not a good sign, especially when you’re coming up against the best offense in the league. I expect the Chiefs to score 30+ this week, with Mahomes no doubt having another multi-touchdown performance.

Joe Burrow - $13,540

Great spot for Burrow this week, with his number 1 receiver Ja’Marr Chase likely back on the field. On top of that, Burrow and the Bengals are taking on a team in the Titans that have struggled against opposing quarterbacks in fantasy this season. The Titans concede the 6th most points to opposing quarterbacks, whilst also ranking 28th in passing yards allowed per game since week 5. The Titans also allow the 4th most receiving touchdowns in the NFL. Burrow has as high an upside as any quarterback this week, having scored over 30 three times in his past five matches. A great option if you want to save a bit of coin over the likes of Mahomes.

Running Back

Kenneth Walker III - $14,290

Nice little matchup here for Walker, with the Seahawks taking on the Raiders a week after a relieving win for the Raiders over the Broncos. The Seahawks had the bye last week, and I can only see that being a good thing for the rookie. I’m hoping the extra week of prep gets Walker even more involved in the passing game, with the Raiders currently ranked 32nd in DVOA against pass-catching running backs. But even if we don’t see a huge uptick in targets, the matchup against the Raiders is still great, with the Vegas team currently ranking 29th in rushing yards per game, 17th in EPA per rush, and 15th in explosive run rate allowed. RB1.

Austin Ekeler - $17,490

Getting Ekeler at a slight discount here, after a low scoring performance last week against the Chiefs. I believe the Chargers will go back to using Ekeler a lot more in this game, with Mike Williams again out and Gerald Everett also under an injury cloud. You can give Ekeler all the superlatives under the sun when it comes to fantasy football, and the fact he gets a tremendous matchup this week against a Cardinals side on the way down gives me even more optimism. Arizona is ranked 30th in DVOA against receiving backs, giving up the fourth most receiving touchdowns and fourth highest yards per reception to opposing running backs. Expect at least one touchdown for Ekeler this week.

D'Onta Foreman - $8,130

A rocks or diamonds type running back, if you need to save some money on your squad somewhere, Foreman could be worth a look. Since taking over the role of RB1 for the Panthers, Foreman has scores of 19, 34, 4, 22 and 2. It’s all game state, with Foreman’s good scores coming in games where the Panthers are in the contest. I don’t see the Broncos blowing the Panthers out, and with the Broncos tremendous pass defence, the Panthers will be relying on Foreman to establish a solid ground game. Denver is a below average defence against the run (18th in DVOA), so I’ve got to believe Foreman gets his carries this week.

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams - $18,050

Adams has been an absolute monster over the past 3 weeks, with three straight scores over 30. He IS the Raiders’ offense right now, and the stats prove it. Adams currently ranks 1st in target share, 8th in target per route run rate, and 6th in air yard share. He also ranks 3rd in redzone targets amongst wide receivers and 4th in deep targets. Whilst the Seahawks have defended receivers well this year, Adams is a different animal, and with Carr looking his way often, look for another big performance from the former Packer in week 12.

DK Metcalf - $12,170

Metcalf gets a chance to flex in this game, going head-to-head with one of the absolute best in the game in Adams. Whilst Metcalf hasn’t really had a huge year by his standards, I like the matchup this week against the heavy man coverage he’s likely to see against the Raiders. Metcalf ranks 4th in redzone targets, 12th in air yards share, and 14th in deep targets. Look for a couple of splash plays against a poor Raiders secondary, and hopefully a couple of redzone targets to boot.

Joshua Palmer - $8,740

Palmer will benefit from another game of no Mike Williams, and the likelihood that the Chargers will still have Keenan Allen on a snap count. Palmer has quietly averaged 10 targets per game over his past 4 appearances, and last week had a breakout game, going for 106 yards and 2 touchdowns. Arizona is bottom half of the league in defending receivers, and if Herbert is willing to let it air out again like he did last week, Palmer will be the beneficiary with Keenan Allen drawing the safety help. Rocks or diamonds, but the sort of player that can be a real point of difference in your squad.

Tight End

Travis Kelce - $16,150

Kelce is essentially WR1 for the best offense in the league, and he’s a tight end. He has the most receiving touchdowns of any player, and at times appears unstoppable. The rankings are all where you’d expect, with Kelce ranking third in target share, target per route run rate and air yard share, whilst ranking 1st in yards per route run and redzone targets. He gets a solid matchup against a Rams defence that look to have given up on the season. Not even Derwin James could stop Kelce last week, if he wants it, he gets it.

Juwan Johnson - $5,770

Somewhat of a tough matchup this week for Johnson, with the Saints taking on the vaunted 49ers defence, however a deeper dive shows that the matchup isn’t as bad as first seems. Johnson is used far more like a slot wide receiver in this Saints offense, meaning he will line up against Jimmie Ward for a good chunk of his snaps. Ward has been horrible working out of the slot this season, and it could well continue against the athletic Johnson. A solid redzone target, Johnson has 5 touchdowns in his past 5 appearances.


Baltimore Ravens - $6,530

The Ravens’ defence has started to come together this season, after struggling out of the gates. The teams that have had the better of this defence has been teams who could stretch the field. The Jaguars don’t really fit that bill, with Trevor Lawrence tending to use his receivers out of the slot and running back Travis Etienne to get this offense moving. I sense the Ravens can hold the Jags below 20 points, however this isn’t where the Ravens score their points on defence. They blitz at an incredibly high rate, leading to a high sack rate (9th). They also force fumbles (6th), recover those fumbles (4th), and create interceptions (5th). The Ravens set up perfectly for fantasy, and are an option almost every week.

Washington Commanders - $6,330

This Commanders defence is quietly turning into one of the best units in the NFL. They are currently ranked 12th in total DVOA defensively, however given how poor this defence looked at the start of the season, that’s quite an improvement. They haven’t been elite at creating turnovers; however, this week get the Falcons, who rank 5th in the league for turnovers allowed. With Chase Young potentially coming back, adding to the tremendous front already available for this team, look for Marcus Mariota to be running for his life for the duration of this contest.

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