daily fantasy sports articles
NFL 2022-23 Daily Fantasy Tips: Week 13
Back to a 12-game slate this Sunday, with 8 early games and 4 late games this week. With just a quick glance at this slate of games, I’m willing to say this is easily the best Monday morning set of games we have seen all season. We’ve got the traditional Bears/Packers rivalry, the Mike White-led Jets heading the Minnesota to take on the Vikings, the Titans against the Eagles, and Deshaun Watson’s return to Houston. And that’s just the early slate, in the afternoon is where it gets exciting. Mike McDaniel takes his high-powered Dolphins offense west, to take on his old team the 49ers. The suddenly hot Raiders take on the Chargers in a massive AFC West game, and finally the Chiefs head to Cincinnati looking to avenge their loss in last season’s AFC Championship game. Bring. It. On.
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Trevor Lawrence - $12,730
Has Lawrence finally emerged? The number 1 overall pick in the 2021 draft has had a patchy start to his career, but he was tremendous in a come-from-behind victory over the Ravens last week. It wasn’t just last week though; Lawrence has been in awesome form over the past month. Since week 9, Lawrence is the number 2 quarterback in the NFL per PFF passing grade and big time throw rate. This week, Lawrence comes up against the worst defence in the league against opposing quarterbacks. In recent times, the Lions also rank 30th in passing yards per game, 31st in explosive pass rate and 20th in EPA per drop back. Expect another big game from the Jags signal caller.
Justin Herbert - $14,100
Despite still being without Mike Williams, I like Herbert in this spot against a poor secondary in the Raiders. Herbert’s fantasy performances have been on an upward trajectory over the past month, and surely this coincides with the return of some key pieces on offense. The concern is the offensive line injuries, however if they can stop Maxx Crosby from getting to Herbert, there’s not a lot else to worry about from a pressure standpoint. Over the past 6 weeks, the Raiders currently rank 32nd in success rate per dropback, 30th in EPA per dropback, and 29th in pass yards allowed per game. Herbert should eat.
Nick Chubb - $14,280
Chubb had a mini slump before coming back in a big way last week against the Buccaneers. I expect him to continue dominating this week against an horrendous Texans run defence. With Deshaun Watson coming back for his first game in around 2 years, I fully expect the Browns to run the ball down the throats of the Texans. The Texans currently rank dead last in fantasy points allowed to running backs, and over the past 6 weeks rank 32nd in explosive run rate allowed, 31st in rushing yards per game, and 26th in EPA per rush. Chubb for 100+ yards and 2 touchdowns.
Dameon Pierce - $10,590
Pierce, like Chubb, has experienced a mid-season slump over the past couple of weeks. This week however, he gets a great chance to score again. The Browns concede the second most points to opposing running backs in fantasy, and over the past 6 weeks rank 32nd in EPA per rush, 27th in explosive run rate allowed, and 29th in rushing success rate. With his slow down in production over the past two weeks we’ve got a nice discount on Pierce’s price, and I’ll take it up here as a high-end RB2.
Josh Jacobs - $14,970
Jacobs was unstoppable last week, rushing for 229 yards and 3 touchdowns, whilst also catching 6 passes for 74 yards. He scored 51.3 points in a remarkable display that meant if you didn’t pick him in your teams, you lost your money. He gets another tremendous matchup this week against the Chargers, who have been horrific against the run again this season, ranking 29th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to running backs. There’s a slight injury concern, so keep an eye on the late reports, however if he plays, he has every chance to be RB1 again this week.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - $14,430
St. Brown is a beast. He is fully fit now and with the Lions firing on all cylinders, St. Brown is the main beneficiary. St. Brown currently ranks 1st in the NFL in targets per route run rate, whilst also ranking 9th in target share. He is a volume machine, being targeted no fewer than 8 times since returning from injury. This week, he gets a Jags defence that has allowed the 5th most YAC and gives up the second most missed tackles per game. Over the past 6 weeks, the Jags have conceded the 4th most fantasy points to slot wide receivers. A great spot for ARSB here.
Christina Kirk - $12,810
Kirk goes head-to-head with St. Brown in this one, with two of the best slot wide receivers in fantasy trying to show who the man is. Kirk has averaged 9.5 targets over the past 5 weeks, and this week comes up against a secondary that has allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing slot wide receivers over the past 7 weeks. Kirk is a redzone target, and with a high total set for this game, expect points for both teams. I expect 10+ targets and hopefully 1 or 2 touchdowns this week for Kirk, and for this price that’s an absolute bargain.
Christian Watson - $9,040
How do you not pick this guy at this price? Over the past 3 weeks, Watson has 6 touchdowns and 275 yards on only 10 receptions. Of course, he can’t keep going at this pace and therefore he could bomb out, but he’s too exciting to leave out of your side. At any point, he can take one to the house. Now if only the Packers can start getting him volume, he could become a true wide receiver fantasy stud. If you’re looking for someone a little safer around this price point, I love Garrett Wilson who appears to be on the same wavelength as new quarterback Mike White. But I won’t be leaving Watson out again.
Pat Freiermuth - $8,960
Muuuuth takes on a Falcons defence that have given up the 11th most points to opposing tight ends this season. He’s not a high-end tight end in the Travis Kelce / Mark Andrews mould, but he gets his targets and has a good solid floor for your tight end position. Freiermuth has only one touchdown this season, however his redzone targets have been increasing, leaving even more room for upside this week against a Falcons defence that gives up a lot of points. If you don’t want to pony up on Kelce, you could do a lot worse than the big Steeler at this position.
Foster Moreau - $7,170
Moreau has been solid for the Raiders since assuming the starting role. He has an 81% route run rate, 38.5% end zone target share and 15.6% target share, which shows he is a definite option in the redzone for Derek Carr. The Chargers’ defence has struggled against opposing tight ends this season, ranking dead last in yards per reception, whilst also allowing the 11th most fantasy points per game to tight ends. He probably won’t win you games with a 25+ score, but he has a solid floor and could get a touchdown in this one.
Washington Commanders - $6,070
The Giants are very safe with the ball in hand, only giving the ball away 11 times this season, good for 4th best in the NFL. You’ve got to think there will be some regression in this area, especially considering how turnover prone Daniel Jones has been in years gone by. Irrespective of this, I like the Commanders defence. They have shown an ability to get to the quarterback of late, and with the potential return of Chase Young, Daniel Jones could be in trouble here. I also suspect this will be a low scoring game, opening up the chances of the Commanders scoring well yet again, after averaging 13 points per game over the past 3 weeks.
Pittsburgh Steelers - $5,320
The Steelers defence has been getting to the quarterback, and causing turnovers at a solid clip over the past 4 weeks. In terms of turnovers, the Falcons are giving up the 7th most turnovers in the league, whilst the Steelers are creating the 7th most turnovers. The Steelers appear to be turning their season around, and if they can shut the Falcons rushing game down, this could be a really solid play. Pittsburgh currently rank 8th in the league in rush defence DVOA, so I give them a good chance at this. It wouldn’t surprise to see another low scoring game here, with the Steelers getting a handful of sacks and hopefully 2+ turnovers.
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