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NFL 2022-23 Daily Fantasy Tips: Week 14
Just the 10 games for the main slate on Monday, with 7 early games and 3 in the late window. The early slate is full of Divisional matchups, with the Jets headed to Buffalo, the Bengals hosting the Browns, the Vikings hosting the Lions, the Jags headed to Tennessee, the Eagles taking on the Giants, and the Steelers hosting the Ravens. With low totals in the afternoon slate, this is a difficult slate of games to pick a team for, so some stacking could be on the cards.
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Jalen Hurts - $16,200
Jalen Hurts is the form quarterback in DFS right now, and rightfully sits alongside Patrick Mahomes as the current MVP favourites. The past two weeks in particular, Hurts has been shredding the opposition. Two weeks ago, Hurts threw for 153 yards and two touchdowns, whilst running for an incredible 157 yards on the ground. One week later, Hurts torched the Titans’ secondary for 380 yards and 3 touchdowns, whilst rushing for another score. With only two scores below 20 all season, Hurts has the floor to not ruin your week, and the ceiling to make an enormous difference.
Joe Burrow - $14,160
Burrow and this Bengals offense is legit. Last week, Burrow threw for 286 yards and 2 touchdowns, whilst also scoring one on the ground against the Chiefs. Burrow has potentially the highest ceiling of any quarterback, and I expect him and this Bengals offense to make things right, after being hammered by the Browns a few weeks ago. Cleveland is solid against the pass, due mainly to their defensive line’s ability to get at the quarterback, but I have to believe the Bengals have schemed a way to keep Burrow clean, and if they can do that, I expect 25+ for Burrow this week.
Christian McCaffrey - $16,330
Run CMC has been solid since his trade to the 49ers, however, now seems to be the chance for him to return to his glory days as an elite RB in fantasy. With Elijah Mitchell out last week, McCaffrey played 82% of snaps, combining for 146 total yards. With Mitchell being still out, and rookie quarterback Brock Purdy undoubtedly looking to dump it off to McCaffrey regularly, expect another huge performance this week. The Buccaneers rush defence is stout, meaning McCaffrey may struggle to get much going on the ground, however he is good enough and will get enough touches to score well purely with volume.
Tony Pollard - $12,920
Since Ezekiel Elliot’s injury in week 8, Tony Pollard has become a fantasy stud. With the return of Zeke in week 11, it was a concern for Pollard backers, however the Cowboys have shifted towards a 50/50 snap split between the 2 running backs, which is a far higher percentage for Pollard than he was getting to start the season. Coming up against a poor Texans run defence, Pollard should eat. Pollard isn’t only getting the job done in the running game, garnering 17 targets in the past 4 games. But where Pollard has really been getting it done is getting into the endzone, with 8 touchdowns in the past 5 games. Against the Texans, he will have every chance to score more.
Zonovan Knight - $9,500
A tough matchup this week for Knight, on the surface, but the Bills are still somewhat susceptible to a decent run game. And whilst Knight could flop this week, for the price he’s worth a look. Knight took over half the running back snaps last week for the Jets, whilst also taking all the redzone snaps. He currently ranks 1st in the league in elusive rating, per PFF, 8th in yards after contact per attempt, and 9th in breakaway rate. I see Knight’s touches increasing this week given how well he has played lately, and if the Jets can keep this close or even get out to a lead, they will lean on their undrafted rookie this week.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - $14,520
We were on St. Brown last week, and he went off, making 11 catches for 114 yads and 2 touchdowns. This week, we go back to the well, with the Lions taking on a Vikings secondary that could be the worst in the league. I’m not sure what St. Brown has to do to see him priced as an elite WR1, but until DFS figures it out, I’m going to keep playing him. Some of the eye-popping stats for the Lions’ WR1 include 4th in yards per route run, 7th in YAC, 8th in target share, 11th in redzone targets and 2nd in targets per route run rate. Select him and watch him burn this Vikings’ secondary.
Garrett Wilson - $9,780
We spoke about Wilson a few weeks ago, and boy has he delivered. Wilson is currently second favourite for Offensive Rookie of The Year, and another game or two like last week and he will run away with this award. Last week, Wilson caught 8 passes for 162 yards in a 27-22 loss to the Vikings. With Mike White calling the plays, Wilson has had a 28% target share, 50% endzone target share, 46% air yard share, and 3.17 yards per route run. These numbers are more than likely unsustainable, but for this price Wilson has low-end WR1 upside. Against the Bills, Wilson may tank, but if the Jets are chasing, expect Mike White to throw it up to his rookie receiver regularly.
DJ Moore - $8,550
Moore is a risky choice this week, given he is coming up against two of the better cornerbacks in the league. But with Sam Darnold under center, Moore has every chance to secure a high enough target share to score well again this week. There are clearly better options, however at this price point Moore has solid upside in a game that could be relatively high scoring, given the nature of recent Seahawks’ matchups. For an even bigger gamble, with potentially higher upside, take a look at George Pickens at $7,820. Pickens was vocal this week about his lack of targets, and with the Ravens’ secondary struggling against athletic receivers, look for Pickens to have some massive plays this week.
T.J. Hockenson - $9,740
Revenge game for the former Lions’ tight end, as T.J comes up against his former team for the first time. It’s a great matchup for the Vikings man, as the Lions currently rank 29th in the league at fantasy points conceded to tight ends. Hockenson’s volume is tremendous, currently receiving a 21% target share, 23% endzone target share, 79% route run rate, and a 23% target per route run rate. He will kill the Lions with volume, whilst also having every chance at a touchdown, which surely the coach will have drawn up for him. A high floor and a massive ceiling.
Dalton Schultz - $10,580
Schultz has a tremendous matchup this week, taking on the Texans who are leaking points for fun. Since Dak Prescott’s return, Schultz ranks 6th in targets for tight ends, whilst commanding a whopping 50% endzone target share. Back to Houston, they currently rank 26th in DVOA against tight ends, whilst allowing the 9th highest yards per reception and 9th most receiving touchdowns to tight ends. With the Dallas offense cooking lately, expect a big game from Schultz with a massive chance at a touchdown or two.
Philadelphia Eagles - $6,170
The Eagles currently lead the league in takeaways, whilst also managing the 2nd most sacks of any team in the NFL. They are currently the 10th most expensive D/ST on this slate, and I can’t quite get my head around why that is. Yes, the Giants are very good at not making errors, however they currently concede the 5th most sacks of any team in the NFL, and Daniel Jones is always close to causing a turnover or 4. The Eagles are the 3rd best defence on this slate with regard to average points per game in fantasy, and this is an easy selection in my opinion.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - $6,280
The much-vaunted Buccaneers defence hasn’t quite lived up to expectations this season, however I believe their ceiling is massive in this matchup. Mr Irrelevant Brock Purdy will make his first start under center for the 49ers this week, and there is every chance that he could throw 4 interceptions. Whilst I’m sure Kyle Shanahan will have a gameplan designed on limiting the opportunities for Purdy to make mistakes, Todd Bowles and this Bucs defence will surely like their chances of a big game. Not a numbers selection, more a gut feel as to how this matchup may turn out.
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