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NFL 2022-23 Daily Fantasy Tips: Week 6
11 games greet us this week for the Monday slate, with two Divisional games included, and one MEGA clash between the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs. The average across the Monday slate of games last week was 45.4, slightly down from the week before, however, continues the climb of game totals over the past two weeks. The average total for this 11-game slate according to the markets is also 45.5, so fingers crossed we continue to see totals climbing across the league.
Last week was a solid one for the selected team and a wonderful week for our top tips at each position, with the only negatives being Commanders Tight End Logan Thomas being a late scratching, Patriots Running Back Damien Harris sustaining an injury (his replacement Rhamondre Stevenson ATE) and the Eagles D/ST having their lowest score of the season.
Draftstars once again is your place to play, with a $50,000 slate for Monday morning, with a first prize of $4,935. There’s plenty of other contests that might tickle your fancy, so get on over to Draftstars and get involved.
Lamar Jackson - $14,680
The Giants have been respectable in shutting down opposing quarterbacks in DFS this season, however they have largely faced pocket passers. The one exception has been Justin Fields in Week 4, who ran for 7.4 yards per carry against this Giants defence. This should have the alarm bells ringing, with Lamar Jackson the most explosive runner of all quarterbacks. He’s currently running for 75 yards per game, and is by far the best passing quarterback the Giants have faced, besides Aaron Rodgers who torched them in the first half last week. Lamar to bounce back with 30+ this week.
Kyler Murray - $14,570
The obvious choice besides Jackson is Josh Allen, however after picking him two weeks in a row, we will go elsewhere this time and take Cardinals’ dual threat QB Kyler Murray. Almost identical price with Lamar Jackson, Murray is slightly lower on my buy list, however it’s not hard for me to jump in on Murray. The Cardinals have the best matchup for quarterbacks, taking on the Seahawks who have been just awful defensively, ranking 31st in defensive DVOA and passing DVOA. If you don’t like Lamar in this spot and don’t have the money for Josh Allen, Murray has huge upside this week.
Rhamondre Stevenson - $13,900
Stevenson took over as RB1 last week with the injury to Damien Harris, and boy did he have an impact. Stevenson ran the ball 25 times for 161 yards, and added 2 receptions for 14 yards. Now, Stevenson will get his chance as RB1 against one of the worst defensive units against the run in the NFL. The Browns have by far the worst rush defence in the NFL according to DVOA, whilst giving up the 3rd most points to running backs fantasy. Stevenson has the 2nd highest success rate amongst running backs in the NFL, and the Patriots have the 3rd best run blocking in the NFL by DVOA. A perfect matchup.
Eno Benjamin - $9,090
Sticking with opposing the Seahawks defence here, however that’s not the only reason I’m on Benjamin in this contest. With RB1 James Connor and RB 3 Darrel Williams missing this week, Benjamin figures to get most snaps at running back. This could end up being a poor selection if the Cardinals decide to throw all game, however I trust that Benjamin will get enough carries and targets to make this selection worthwhile. The Seahawks have been terrible defensively against the run, and for a RB1 to be this cheap against this defence, you’ve just got to have him.
Darrel Henderson Jr - $8,000
With Cam Akers out of this game, Henderson becomes the number 1 running back in this contest. This is a play purely to save money if you need to, with Henderson able to qualify as a mid-range RB2 or FLEX, which at this price point isn’t horrible. Henderson has been stuck behind Akers this year, however, gets his chance to impress here against a below average Panthers defence. Not a lock for a decent score, however if he can get a decent amount of the carries and continue accumulating 4 or 5 targets, should get you a decent return.
Mike Evans - $13,160
Evans and the Buccaneers head to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers this week, and after an ordinary 2nd half last week, surely the Bucs finally take a step forward on offense this week. Pittsburgh rank 22nd in DVOA against the pass, and this week will be missing several key pieces in their secondary. This sets up perfectly for Evans, as both Brady’s preferred deep threat and redzone target. The Steelers currently concede the most points to opposing wide receivers in fantasy this year, and I anticipate that to continue this week. Coming up against a replacement level secondary, I expect Evans to dominate this week and be a very solid WR1.
Marquise Brown - $11,150
Continuing our Cardinals stack is ‘Hollywood’ Brown. Brown has the 5th highest average amongst WRs in this slate, and he comes up against a Seahawks secondary that hasn’t been able to stop anyone. Hollywood currently averages 11 targets a game, good for 3rd in the league, and has quickly becomes Kyler Murray’s number 1 target. Watch for Brown to get a big percentage of his snaps out of the slot, where he will match up against Coby Bryant who has been horrible in coverage this season. Brown has the upside of a high end WR1 this week, and you’re only paying high end WR2 money for him. Tremendous purchase.
Jakobi Meyers - $9,970
Meyers is questionable this week, so keep an eye on the final injury report, however if he suits up, he is an excellent buy this week. He is the number 1 option at the Patriots, regardless of quarterback, as he sits fourth highest in the league for target share, and 7th highest in air yard share. He will play most of his snaps from the slot against Greg Newsome, who has been below average in coverage. The Browns are below average when it comes to fantasy points conceded to wide receivers, and with Denzel Ward missing, this week will be even worse. Meyers has the upside of a WR2 this week, and you can pick him up for WR3 money.
Mark Andrews - $14,110
Andrews is the 2nd best tight end in DFS this season, as he continues to be Lamar’s binky, averaging 9.2 targets per game. Andrews’ only blank this season was against the Bills, so he can be forgiven for that, whilst having 3 huge games and one average performance. This week, Andrews and the Ravens take on the Giants, who have been solid against opposing tight ends this year, however they have not faced any of the top tight ends, with Robert Tonyan the best of the bunch. The Giants have the 5th worst pass defence according to DVOA, despite facing only one elite quarterback. I expect Lamar to cook this week, and Andrews to be the main benefactor.
Zach Ertz - $9,660
I won’t go into too much detail about the Cardinals match up with the Seahawks as I’ve gone into plenty of detail above, however Ertz is a strong candidate this week for your tight end position, particularly if you want to spend up on high end talent elsewhere. Ertz has been ultra-consistent, averaging 13 this year, with a high score of 16.7 and low of 10.5. He has 10+ targets in 3 of 5 games this year, and has the 2nd most redzone targets at the position. The Seahawks are most scored on defence for tight ends in the NFL. A solid selection this week.
Cincinnati Bengals - $4,960
The Bengals take on the Saints this week, who allow the 3rd most points to opposing D/ST units in the NFL. The Saints have given up the most takeaways in the NFL through 5 weeks (13), whilst the Bengals also create the 8th most turnovers in the league. Added to this, some of the Saints biggest weapons are out, or questionable to play this week, with Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry OUT, and Chris Olave questionable. Despite the big score last week for the Saints, I don’t see it this week against a miserly Bengals defence.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - $7,440
If you’ve got some spare cash when selecting your D/ST, you could do a lot worse than the Bucs. Owning one of the most feared defences in football, the Bucs D gets a great matchup this week against a Steelers side who couldn’t manage a touchdown last week against the Bills. Whilst I doubt the Bucs will hold the Steelers to under a touchdown, I do expect their defence to be stout and give up minimal points. What I’m more excited about is the chance at turnovers for this Bucs defence, with Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett likely to be throwing a lot, and already throwing 4 picks in his one and a half games.