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NFL 2022-23 Daily Fantasy Tips: Week 9
Only 10 games in this Monday slate, with 6 teams on the bye in week 9. The early slate of 8 games is headlined by an AFC East clash between the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets, whilst the 2-game afternoon slate sees the Arizona Cardinals host the Seattle Seahawks, followed by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hosting the Los Angeles Rams. The average total for this slate is 45.7, up 2 full points from this time last week. This is on the back of a cracking slate of games last week, with the 11 games averaging 47.5 on the back of some massive scoring in the early games. Let’s hope for some more high scoring affairs this week.
Draftstars once again is your place to play, with a $40,000 slate for Monday morning, with a first prize of $3,915. There’s plenty of other contests that might tickle your fancy, so get on over to Draftstars and get involved.
Justin Herbert - $14,690
Herbert comes up against a defence that has struggled to stop the pass this year, the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons currently rank 30th in defensive pass DVOA, whilst also conceding the 3rd most points to quarterbacks in fantasy football. Whilst Herbert hasn’t had the stellar season many had hoped, he did average 25 points per game prior to his week 2 rib injury against the Chiefs. You would think he’s back to full fitness, and with a great matchup this week after the bye, could be in for a huge performance. The injury concerns for Chargers wide receivers and potentially Austin Ekeler must be a worry though, however Herbert has a solid enough floor to select and save some coin.
Justin Fields - $12,120
Has Fields figured it out? The past two weeks Fields has finally started to look like an NFL quarterback, and that has carried over into his fantasy production. On the road to noted defensive teams (Patriots, Cowboys), Fields has put together solid scores of 24 and 26, and appears ready to be a fantasy relevant quarterback moving forward. The good thing is, Fields is getting this done through the air, as well as on the ground. Everyone knew he could run, but now he is getting the job done passing the ball too. With the addition of Chase Claypool, the pass game should open up even more for Fields going forward. Keep taking advantage of his cheapish price whilst you can.
Austin Ekeler - $17,970
Ekeler is putting up elite numbers right now and is the number 1 fantasy option across all positions. Over the past 4 weeks he’s averaged 33.7 points, and with the number of offensive weapons out for the Chargers this week, expect Ekeler to get plenty of targets in the passing game. The Falcons are also only a week removed from being destroyed by D’Onta Foreman on the ground, and they currently rank last in success rate against the run. So, I expect Ekeler to eat on the ground and through the air. If you can afford him, buy him, but also if you can wait for final teams, do so as he is still listed as questionable.
Aaron Jones - $14,880
I love this matchup for Jones, who has dominated the Lions over the past three meetings. In that span, Jones has averaged over 140 total yards and has scored 7 total touchdowns. The Lions defence ranks 30th in the league per rushing defence DVOA and 32nd in total defensive DVOA. Jones’ workload has increased over the past month, with AJ Dillon struggling to get much going. Whilst he doesn’t have the upside of an Austin Ekeler or Josh Jacobs, he has a solid floor and the ability to get up towards the 30-point mark if he can get into the endzone.
D'Onta Foreman - $9,070
Whilst the situation isn’t quite as good this week for Foreman, and he is a little more expensive, he still must be a play this week. He comes up against a Bengals defence that was shredded by Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt last week, and after his performance last week I can’t see a reason Head Coach Steve Wilks won’t stick with his new bell cow. Speaking of the Bengals run defence, since week 5 they rank 30th in rushing yards per game, 28th in EPA per rush, and 31st in explosive rush rate allowed. I love the situation and I love the price. I’m slightly concerned by the possible return of Chuba Hubbard; however, I don’t see it affecting Foreman’s touches too much. NB: Hubbard has been confirmed as being OUT this week, making this play even juicier.
DeAndre Hopkins - $17,050
Hopkins has been balling since returning from his PED suspension earlier in the season. Since returning, he is first in the league in target share, target rate per route run, and air yard share. He is also tied with Tyreek Hill in that span for total targets. Whilst he does come up against a formidable secondary this week in the Seahawks, Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury has shown he is not against moving Hopkins around to get him the best possible matchup. If you’ve got the money, Tyreek Hill is the only WR I would select over Hopkins this week, but you get Hopkins at a $1,150 discount on Hill.
Tyler Boyd - $11,650
I’m relying on Boyd being Joe Burrow’s number 1 target this week. With the Bengals coming up against a rocks and diamonds Panthers’ secondary, I expect Jaycee Horn to matchup and essentially shut Tee Higgins down, forcing Burrow to go to Boyd. Boyd runs about 83% of his routes from the slot, signalling he will more than likely be shadowed by Myles Hartfield, who won’t be able to slow Boyd down. Boyd has high end WR2 upside, and gets a decent matchup against a Panthers defence that currently ranks 27th in passing defence by DVOA, and gives up the 11th most points to wide receivers in fantasy.
DJ Moore - $9,620
It’s a bit surprising that after his past two weeks, you can still pick DJ Moore up for low end WR2 / WR3 money. Since PJ Walker has taken over under center, Moore’s targets have skyrocketed, going from an average of 5.6 targets per game through 6 weeks, to 10.5 targets per game over the past two. Moore will take on a Bengals cornerback room that is missing it’s CB1 Chidobe Awuzie, meaning he will be lining up against Cam Taylor-Britt and Tre Flowers for most of his snaps. Moore has WR1 upside this week, and to pick him up at this price is crazy value.
Gerald Everett - $7,510
Everett has a tremendous opportunity to break out this week. The Chargers top 2 wide receivers are out, with 2 other replacement level receivers a chance of missing out. Running back and weapon in the pass game Austin Ekeler is also listed as questionable. Quarterback Justin Herbert will be forced to target Everett, who has been a solid safety valve for Herbert all season over the middle. Added to the injury situation, Everett comes up against a Falcons defence that has allowed the second most receptions, third most receiving yards, and the 8th highest catch rate to opposing tight ends. Everett gets a solid share of targets in the redzone, and with the total of this game sitting near 50, expect Everett to get plenty of chances at a touchdown.
Robert Tonyan, - $6,870
Tonyan has had a solid, if unspectacular season for the Packers in 2022, however this matchup sets up beautifully for a big performance. His usage has been slowly ticking up before an explosion last week saw his route rate jump 15% to 84%. I don’t expect that to drop too much here, with the Packers taking on a Lions defence that rank 32nd in DVOA against tight ends, whilst also allowing the 5th highest catch rate, 9th most receiving yards, 7th highest yards per reception, and 4th most receiving touchdowns to tight ends. Another high total nearing 50, expect Tonyan to get at least a couple of redzone targets against a porous Lions defence.
Buffalo Bills - $7,510
The obvious choice this week, is also the most expensive. Anyone who caught a glimpse of the Jets offense last week saw some dreadful throws by Zach Wilson. He is the worst quarterback in the league whilst facing pressure, and this Bills defence can get pressure rushing only 4. Not only do I see the Bills holding the Jets to two scores or less, but I can also see turnovers coming from some poor Wilson decision making. If you’ve got the cash, spend it, however my D/ST will be a far cheaper option this week. See below.
Seattle Seahawks - $4,000
Whilst this could easily blow up in my face, with a high total set in this contest, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a low score in this one. With these teams both being apart of the NFC West, they are familiar with one another. They played only 3 weeks ago, with Seattle grinding out a 19-9 victory, with both teams only managing 4.5 yards per play. The Seahawks managed 2 turnovers in that contest, scoring 17 points, by far their highest of the year. Whilst I highly doubt they score 17 again, I trust their defence to get me something positive in the game, and for $4,000, I’ll take the chance and spend up on attacking weapons elsewhere.
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