NRL Broncos Dragons

This week there is plenty of NRL prize money up for grabs with Moneyball putting up $7,000 ($15 Entry) for the Thursday night Broncos v Dragons match along with GPP upwards of $4,000 for the remainder of the round. Meanwhile, PlayON have a $400 GPP for Thursday nights clash along with some qualifiers to the $2,500 Anzac Day special. Draftstars have put up $5,000 GPP ($15 Entry) for the Broncos v Dragons as well as $2,000 and $3,000 Guaranteed pools for the remaining games. With plenty up for grabs on Thursday, let’s take a look at the clash between the Broncos and the Dragons.

Off the back of an impressive victory against the Cowboys last week, the Broncos host the under siege Dragons looking to notch up their first victory for the season. In their first clash since the Dragons sprung a huge upset in last year’s elimination final, a rejuvenated Brisbane outfit will face former halves, Corey Norman ($11,400 DS) and Ben Hunt ($13,500 DS) along with front rower, Korbin Sims ($9,900 DS), playing his first match since leaving the club. A match that would normally appear to be a close battle, the Broncos have been installed as short priced favourites and rightfully so, given the absentees from this Dragons line-up.

With a huge re-shuffle in the Dragons spine that has perplexed many, Widdop ($8,250 DS) has averaged less than 15 since moving to fullback, while the speedy Dufty ($7,200 DS) has only managed a high of 13.3 coming off the bench. Although yet to play a full game this year, McInnes ($14,650 DS) remains ultra-consistent averaging more than 50 to begin the year. Despite an impressive young Broncos forward pack, it was the back-line that scored well last week, headlined by both Oates ($11,600 DS) and Bird ($10,300 DS), yet to have a score under 50 this season. McCullough ($15,000 DS) continues to score well, averaging over 50, while emerging forward, Flegler ($9,600 DS), scored an impressive 54.6 points coming off the bench.

When they met last year to kick off the season, Ben Hunt (51.4 DS Points) scored well with an intercept try to go along with 330 kicking metres and a try assist, claiming victory in the first match against his former club. The absent De Belin (64.4 DS Points) scored well with a try, 4 tackle breaks and 32 tackles as the only other player to score more than 50. When the Dragons demolished the Broncos in the elimination final, an impressive hat-trick from Tariq Sims ($13,700 DS, 73.2 DS Points) to go along with 3 line break and 6 tackle breaks, headlined another dominant performance from Hunt (60.5 DS Points) relishing playing against his former side, while Leeson Ah Mau scored an impressive 62.8 points from the bench.

Looking at this clash, although the Broncos go in as similar favourites to the elimination final, it would take a major turnaround for the Dragons to claim victory here. Expect the Bronco forwards to take advantage of a depleted St George pack and make easy metres down the field, before shifting to the backs to convert it into points. Milford ($13,900 DS) and Nikorima ($12,720 DS) still have yet to excite me this year, and this could be their opportunity with the Dragons unlikely to apply much pressure if the Broncos get a roll on. Don’t be surprised to see plenty of points scored from the Broncos back line once again, while the Dragons defence could be in for a big night with their forwards likely to score well.

Exciting forward Josh Kerr will make way for the returning Sims after a mediocre performance coming off the bench, while the Broncos will field the same side as they did last week. Roberts ($9,700 DS) appears to have recovered from his injury but did leave the field late in their match against the Cowboys. Reports have suggested Zac Lomax ($7,600 DS) is on standby for Tim Lafai ($8,760 DS) who is in doubt with a hamstring complaint. With most NRL early line-ups, changes are hard to combat so far out. Should there be some significant changes to the line-up, tread carefully if following the cheat sheet.



Key Backs

Jack Bird ($10,300 DS)

Once again Jack Bird looks great value, despite rising almost $2,000 in salary. The NSW winning centre was exceptional once again and still he is yet to score a try this year. With both scores over 50 to begin the year, Bird has scored well off the back of 3 Try Assists, 4 Line Break Assists, 38 Tackles and 9 Tackle Breaks. The sternum injury of last year appears well behind him and except him to only improve off the back of his already 227 running metres. This match against the Dragons shapes-up nicely as an excellent opportunity for Bird to team up with Oates once again, as both have scored well, combining on the left edge.

Gareth Widdop ($8,250 DS)

As mentioned early, the decision to play Widdop at the back has been somewhat of an odd decision, given his exceptional ability in the halves over the years at both Melbourne and the Dragons. How long this will last is anyone’s guess and at a basement salary, Widdop must be considered in all line-ups. Despite his poor scoring performances so far this year, Widdop has the potential to score well and coming up against a Broncos that can be known to leak easy metres around the ruck, expect Widdop to be flirting with the attacking line looking for quick off-loads. Although a bit of a risk, Widdop could be an excellent POD in this clash.


Key Forwards

Blake Lawrie ($13,400 DS)

With the absence of both Frizell and De Belin from the Dragons back-row, Lawrie has benefited from a starting spot and plenty of minutes. Despite sharply rising in price the last few weeks, Lawrie is still excellent value going at $238/Point based our projected score and looks an excellent banker for this Dragons line-up. Despite yet to have a score greater than 50.4, Lawrie is a workhorse in defence and that is likely to continue here with the Broncos going in as short favourites. Despite Lawrie not posing much of a threat outside of base stats, a huge score is possible should a few things go his way.

Alex Glen ($9,900 DS)

With reports circling in recent days that the Broncos were shopping around Glenn for the future, the normally quiet Kiwi could be a great option for those looking at a cheaper option in their back row. An excellent fringe runner, Glenn has scored well in the past when scoring a try and at less than $10,000 in salary, Glenn could be looking to prove his worth for the club with a dominant performance against the Dragons. Although most likely to score predominantly from base stats, should a motivated Glenn be allowed to roam, he could feed well off the back of some Nikorima or Milford short balls.

Cameron McInnes ($14,650 DS)

Despite yet to play a full 80 minutes in 2019, McInnes still continues to score well as an absolute workhorse in defence. It is hard to know whether McInnes coming off late in the game will be a standard thing going forward, but while Dufty is playing off the bench, it looks the obvious answer unless of course an injury to one of the backs. Despite a bit of a risk at such a large price, it is still highly likely that McInnes will rack up plenty of tackles in defence, with the Broncos expected to control the majority of the ball. Although McCullough is another excellent option at Hooker, McInnes gets the edge for me in this contest.

David Fifita ($11,280 DS)

Another that has risen more than $1,000 on last week is David Fifta, but rightfully so as he was great once again in a solid 80 minute performance. With scores of only 28.9 and 45.7 to begin the year, many would question if there is much value in Fifita, but given all his points have been just about scored off base stats alone, there is plenty of upside with a huge score just around the corner. At $228/Point based on our project score, Fifita shapes up as our banker for the Broncos and looks exceptional value. With a potential Origin spot just up for grabs, don’t expect Fifita to drop-off even if the Broncos are headed for a comfortable win.


Brisbane Broncos

Broncos Cheat Sheet


St George Dragons

Dragons Cheat Sheet


Round 3 Potential Bargains

Ryan Sutton ($8,100 DS)

With the injury of Canberra enforcer Joseph Tapine, Sutton has been promoted to the starting side despite only averaging 14 minutes off the bench in the first couple of games. In both of those games he certainly made the most of his opportunity and as a credit to him, Coach Stuart has given him first crack. As to how many minutes he will play with a few options off the bench is hard to know, but with a basement salary, Sutton looks well worth the risk for those looking for a cheaper option in their forward pack.

Jake Clifford ($8,800 DS)

A much overdue selection for the Cowboys, Clifford returns to the halves with the in-consistent Te Maire Martin shifting to fullback. Clifford comes in at a near basement price, which looks exceptional value given how he finished off 2018. Although Clifford found easy points through kick metres, he finished the season as one of the most active in attack and defence with plenty of run metres and tackles to pad his stats. Although it is hard to know how good Clifford will go returning, it is safe to safe he will be looking to keep his spot with a great performance.

Dylan Napa ($9,000 DS)

Despite often in-consistent in his scores, Napa proved last week that he can be an excellent scorer when on his game. Off the back of 5 tackle breaks, a try and 182 running metres, Napa scored 62.6 points despite still accumulating 4 missed tackles. Coach Pay appeared to also show his intentions for the former Rooster, with Napa playing more than two thirds of the game. At a near basement price, it is safe to say that although he is capable of some real low scores, the Origin front rower is well worth the risk.


DFR Dragon's Picks

The Daily Fantasy Rankings "Dragon" has scoured the Australian sports betting markets and found some great value picks for these games. Check out his picks for the day below and click on the links to follow his betting plays!

Dragon's Picks Odds Sportsbook
Any Forward 1st Try $4.15 Bet now at BetEasy!
Broncos v Dragons Over 36.5 Points $1.88 Bet now at Neds!
Tigers -6.5 $1.90 Bet now at Sportsbet!
Roosters Half Time/Full Time $1.91 Bet now at Pointsbet!



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