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NRL 2020 Fantasy Tips: Finals - Panthers v Rabbitohs

By: Tom Kelly

Prelim finals are just the best. Well, Origin is just the best, but straight after that I have prelims as the games of the season. The Panthers are handy favourites, but the Rabbits have been red-hot the last 3 weeks since trouncing the Roosters, so I’m expecting a good contest. There are plenty of good plays, but pricing is pretty tight, so you’ll need to tread a fine line to build a competitive line up. Let’s get into it.

Draftstars is the home of NRL Daily Fantasy and has posted a $15,000 contest for this match. A $1,000 mini and $500 micro is also available. 

Market Odds

Panthers ($1.45) v Rabbitohs ($2.85)

Spread - 6.5

Total - 44.5

Weather

Oooh.. Some chance of wet weather footy here. If so the slick nature of footy may become more of a grind. Keep an eye out of this.

 

Fantasy Preview

WFB: Everyone is in play here. Jaxson Paulo isn’t likely to set another career high after exploding last week, so I’m looking more to Alex Johnston and Corey Allan. Johnston has the track record and is on the end of the Rabbits favourite plays to the left, so I want to trust him more than the inconsistent Allan. Josh Mansour is as safe as WFB plays come at this price, he should get through plenty of work in a big game, a try would just be a nice cherry on top. Over 10K I’m more keen on Dane Gagai and Dylan Edwards than Brian To’o. Both have 70+ upside, but it’s going to be hard to fit them in.

 

CTR: Can Stephen Crichton be 100% owned on this slate? Obviously not (with Campbell Graham ruled out due to a groin injury that brings Jed Cartwright into the CTR position), but with the need to save some salary and with all the talent and 70-point upside of the more expensive Dane Gagai. The Panthers being favourites only seals the deal. Brent Naden doesn’t have anywhere near the same upside, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be the highest scorer at the position in a one-off game, so there is some merit to pivoting to him instead of the very chalky Crichton and crossing your fingers.

 

HALF: I trust both halfbacks, I’m wary of the attacking five-eights. Nathan Cleary is just about the best player in the competition, and I expect a 70+ score from him. Adam Reynolds is an ageing version of Cleary, and a good chance to put up the 60+ score needed to challenge Cleary for value. Cody Walker and Jarome Luai both have much worse floors than their halves counterparts and are relatively overpriced for their average output. Given that both should attract decent ownership with good recent scoring, I’m happy to ignore both of them for the most part.

 

2RF: Okay I’m a bit annoyed about the pricing here. Too much value, but I suppose with big prices at HLF and HOK on this slate we need some relief in spots like this. Isaah Yeo and Cam Murray are both strong options, but it’s going to be hard to fit them in with Cleary and Cook to squeeze in. I love Liam Martin, who has gone from strength to strength all season and is a much safer play than his injury-prone and tackle-missing teammate Kurt Capewell. It’s very difficult to split Jayden Su’a and Bayley Sironen, so I won’t even try. Both are very worth playing with 60-point upside.

 

HOK: A nice clean 50/50 decision on Damien Cook or Api Koroisau. The discount on Koroisau is tempting, but the chance he gets a rest from Tyrone May is rather off-putting. I prefer the 80 minutes and vintage recent form of Cook, but his massive ownership is enough to still consider Koroisau if you need the extra salary.

 

FRF: Wow, talk about value. Tom Burgess, Tevita Tatola, James Fisher-Harris and James Tamou are all too cheap. They are all inconsistent scorers so I think an even mix of each among your line-ups is the way to go. The GPP play is to mix in some bench players, as the starters should all get big ownership with such huge value. Liam Knight is the obvious play, but I do like the youthful upside of Spencer Leniu and Keaon Koloamatangi at close to minimum price.

 

Final Word: Like I said, lots of value, but we need it with a couple of high-priced players that are nearly must-haves. Getting the 50/50 calls right at places like WFB, 2RF and FRF will be important. You’ll also need to go off the beaten path at least once to separate yourself from the pack. Like I said last week, not Jed Cartwright! Good Luck!

 

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