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NRL 2020 Fantasy Tips: Round 11 - Eels v Tigers
We’re really getting into that part of the footy season where weekends blur into each other and you’re not sure if you’re ready for more games when Thursday night rolls around. Luckily we have a decent game here with the Eels hosting the Tigers at Bankwest Stadium.
Draftstars are back with Australia’s best fantasy contests and Thursday night is no different with a $15,000 feature contest up for grabs!
Let’s break down the single contest to grab a share of that prize money!
Eels 1.36 v Tigers 3.20
Total Over/Under: 39.5
The Eels are second on the ladder and that’s about right for their standing in the comp. The Tigers are 7th, and I think they’re a little underrated at 9th in the premiership market. The odds suggest a likely Eels win but we should definitely consider several sneaky Tigers players on the search for a winning lineup, especially after a huge win last week with a new look halves combo.
WFB: David Nofoaluma $11,500 is the big ceiling player for the Tigers, and the price is actually okay. Most likely we want to look at Blake Ferguson $7,790 and Maika Sivo $8,870 for the Eels, despite Ferguson being bad all season, he has to go off eventually. My gut feeling is that Clint Gutherson $12,390 is a bit too expensive despite his incredible recent form, especially considering he should lose the goal kicking duties to Mitch Moses. Adam Doueihi $8,470 and Tommy Talau $8,020 don’t really have the ceiling in this matchup, so they’re just contrarian salary savers if you want to try a Tigers stack.
CTR: Both Michael Jennings $9,870 and Waqa Blake $7,790 crossed the line last week and put up monster 60+ scores. They both have significantly better ceilings than Moses Mbye $8,060 or Chris Lawrence $7,740, so it seems an easy call to split the Eels centres 50/50 across your lineups. You can play Michael Chee-Kam $9,000 here, but I expect that your lineup will have a much higher ceiling playing Jennings or Blake rather than an extra 2RF.
HALF: Quite an even offering at this position, with big ceilings and solid floors all around. Benji Marshall $12,390 and Billy Walters $10,930 both had monster games last week, but of course the Broncos rolling over helped a lot. Both had some solid base stats, with Benji doing all the kicking and Walters making a handy 38 tackles (I’m guessing he went into hooker when Brooks came on). There is always the risk that Brooks comes on for one of them instead of Grant, so don’t go too heavy. Mitchell Moses $12,180 is back from injury, and I expect that puts a line through Dylan Brown $14,960 who should see far less base stats and is way too expensive. Moses himself is very cheap for his normal output, so as long as you trust that he’s fully fit he is probably the best value at the position.
2RF: The only clear value play on this slate is Michael Chee-Kam $9,000. With Garner out, he gets the start where he averages 75 minutes and around 38 points, very handy at his price and close to a lock. Ryan Matterson $16,090 is too expensive coming back from minor injury, especially when the cheaper Nathan Brown $13,850 has looked great in recent weeks. Luciano Leilua $12,510 had an amazing game last week and his price is still reasonable, but again I prefer the cheaper Shaun Lane $11,090 who has similar scoring potential and is on the better side of this matchup.
HOK: Luke Brooks being on the bench took away Harry Grant’s $15,930 80 minute ceiling last week, and it could happen again in this one. Reed Mahoney $14,380 on the other hand looks locked in for the 80, and on that basis alone he’s my guy at hooker tonight, or if not just saving the salary with Billy Walters $10,390.
FRF: Reagan Campbell-Gillard $13,670 is on an amazing run, with 4 straight 50+ scores after a career of scoring mid 30’s. He’s playing huge minutes, including 80 last week, and it’s hard to say whether that is sustainable or not (history says no, so maybe fade).
In his place I’m a little more interested in Russel Packer $10,230 after a solid showing last week, and Junior Paulo $13,270 is a little cheaper after a couple of quiet weeks and every chance to explode. I’ve finally given up on fading Josh Aloiai $11,610 who has clearly just become a very good player this year, and he’s now cheap again and a great play. Finally Matt Eisenhuth $13,960 had his first quiet game of the season, but the minutes are still there and he’ll have lots of work to do in this one, so I’m keen to have a few shares.
Final Word: I’m not seeing too many golden opportunities to be different on this slate. The Harry Grant fade could help, as could taking a punt on someone like Tommy Talau if neither team scores many points. A total stack of Tigers backline players seems risky, but they are a tad cheaper and it could pay off big time if they manage to win. There are always ways to beat the field, you’ll just have to back your gut because mine hasn’t quite got this one figured out. Good Luck!