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NRL 2020 Fantasy Tips: Round 15 - Eels v Storm
Another cracking matchup to start a round, this time 2nd v 3rd on the ladder. The Eels are at full strength, but the Storm have some concerns coming into this one.
Eels 1.54 v Storm 2.50
Firstly Jesse Bromwich is suspended, no news on the team changes yet but I’m assuming Nelson Asofa-Solomona starts and maybe Chris Lewis onto the bench. It’s also reported that Jahrome Hughes is in doubt with a groin injury, and Marion Seve could return which would probably push out Sandor Earl or Brenko Lee. The weather looks good, let’s get stuck into finding some value!
UPDATE: The Storm on Wednesday night announced that Hughes is out with his groin injury and Asofa-Solomona starting in the Front Row.
Two huge outs for tomorrow night... and a first-grade debut.#YourStorm— Melbourne Storm (@storm) August 19, 2020
WFB: This is going to be a theme of this preview, but most of the value does appear to be in the Parramatta players. Clint Gutherson $10,380 is a great starting point, still quite cheap after a 34 run, 370m record breaking performance! If he stays that involved and has a bit more luck go his way with tackle breaks and attacking stats then he is absolutely smashing that price. Pairing him with Maika Sivo $7,620 or Blake Ferguson $7,730 makes good sense, with both of them far too cheap after some poor recent scores that you just know won’t continue. Because it’s a volatile scoring position, a little sprinkle of Ryan Papenhuyzen $12,470, Josh Addo-Carr $9,680 and even Sandor Earl $7,000 is also fine, as they all have plenty of ceiling to pay off their price if things go their way, it’s just not as likely to happen.
CTR: Again, it’s the Eels options in Michael Jennings $9,100 and Waqa Blake $8,190. They’re better scorers at cheaper prices, no brainer. I’m happy to fully fade Justin Olam $9,160 after two unusually high scores in a row, but I might have a little Brenko Lee $8,910 as he does have a similar scoring ability to Blake and Jennings.
HALF: Jahrome Hughes $14,280 is too expensive anyway, but coming in under an injury cloud I have no interest at all (Now he is out - Cooper Johns is in play at $7,000). Despite Dylan Brown's $14,530 explosion this season, I still have Mitchell Moses $13,070 pegged as the better scorer (as shown by the last two weeks), and he’s $1000 cheaper. That makes it a no brainer to go heavy on Moses. I’ll even say that I prefer Ryley Jacks $9,380 to Brown for the salary saving, especially if Hughes is ruled out and Cooper Johns comes into the team, which presumably would give Jacks more kicking responsibilities.
2RF: The $4,500 gap between Ryan Matterson $16,290 and Shaun Lane $11,740 is excessive, making Lane easily my favourite play here. I’m not sure what to recommend with Tino Faasuamaleaui $14,410. He’s a very good young forward, and he’s shown a big ceiling with 87 points 3 weeks ago. At this stage I’m going to prefer the proven pedigree and good form of Nathan Brown $14,590 at a similar price, but I do think Tino could be a worthy pivot in some lineups. If you need more value to pair with Lane then both of Felise Kaufusi $10,980 and Kenny Bromwich $11,650 have been scoring okay and can pay of their prices if things fall their way, but it won’t be easy in this tough matchup.
HOK: A simple Reed Mahoney $14,370 vs Brandon Smith $14,260 decision. I choose Mahoney. He likely plays more minutes, makes more tackles, and scores more points. I’d call it an 80/20 split if I was entering 10 teams.
FRF: If you’ve been following my recommendations so far, you’ve likely got a team full of Eels players. We can’t have that, and luckily I finally like a couple of Storm options. Assuming that Nelson Asofa-Solomona $10,680 does indeed start (UPDATE - he is named to start), I have both he and Christian Welch $9,910 pegged for around 45 points, which represents good value. I have both Reagan Campbell-Gillard $13,490 and Joseph Paulo $13,010 down for low 50s scores, which means I prefer Paulo at a $500 discount, but neither is likely to beat the Storm options for value. If you need a unique option Kane Evans $10,220 has exceed 40 points in 5 of his 8 games this year, which means he’s an okay chance of being the best of the lot and will probably be underowned.
Final Word: I can’t see a Storm stack working out here, but it’s always a possibility. Instead I’ll be looking to swallow a lot of the Eels chalk and pivoting to a few Storm options in each lineup. Good Luck!
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