Okay, this is starting to feel like normal again, and Round 5 is here off a two day break to keep us barreling forward. The resumption of the AFL is going to take some shine off the NRL and the monster prize pools we’ve been playing for, but it will still be more than worth our while to get things right for the biggest slate of the week. Draftstars has a $10,000 contest for us to sink our teeth into.


Market Odds

Odds: Broncos 4.55 v Eagles 1.21

Spread - 12.5

Total Over/Under - 40.5




Gosford: Light winds, possibly shower early Min 10 Max 20 (Night Game)


Fantasy Overview

The odds don’t lie in this one, the Broncos are struggling so much that they’ve named Corey Oates to play 2RF after years of pleading, and have made several other changes including bringing back Ben Te’o from Union purgatory. Personally I think most of this media hype will be gone in a month when the likes of Fifita, Pangai Jr, Glenn are back and Lodge regains full fitness, but for now they are a full on train wreck. That makes life easy for the Eagles, who had a heartbreaking loss on the weekend and should be fired up to get things back on track. An Eagles stack is likely to be the theme of this article, so prepare yourself.



WFB: Turbo Trbojevic $12,350 and Reuben Garrick $8,520 are the two studs in the Manly back line, and with Garrick kicking goals these are the two most likely to benefit from a big Manly win. The last two weeks teams have been tearing the Broncos to pieces by going left, which would suggest that Brad Parker $7,800 should be able to get in on the action. The only Broncos worth considering are Jamayne Isaako $8,500 and Corey Oates $9,000. I’ll talk about Oates in the 2RF section, but you can play him here. With Isaako, it is hard to see him scoring the 50 points he’d need to be on a winning lineup, so I won’t be clicking on his name much at all. Note Tevita Funa $7,000 has been named on the wing and is a rookie dart


CTR: I already mentioned Parker, which leaves Moses Suli $8,590 as a talented, inconsistent wrecking ball on the right edge for Manly who can get it done on any given day. This particular day he’s likely to be running at Oates, Milford and Boyd, so I think he’s a very fine play. Kotoni Staggs $10,000 is a good young player and can make things happen all on his own, but like Isaako I think it will be hard for him to put up a ceiling score in this one.


HALF: Another position where I mostly like the Manly players. Dylan Walker $10,300 went large last round, and this game sets up nicely for him to do it again. Daly Cherry-Evans $15,400 has great base stats, and just needs one really big play to hit the monster score needed at his price. It’s hard to bet against him doing that in this game. Anthony Milford $12,530 has been awful the last two weeks, and I’m unwilling to back him to turn it around in this game. Brodie Croft $11,450 is a similar story, there is just too much going against him to believe that he’ll score a long-range try or two and blow the slate up.


2RF: Manly’s back row consists of Joel Thompson $11,880 and Corey Waddell $7,200, while Thompson is a very soild play you cannot give up the value with Waddell. Easy choice to go with Waddell. Jake Trbojevic $14,470 is the stud, but after a nice score last week I have a feeling that he’s not the best pick tonight, as he tends to be less involved in easy wins where his high tackle counts are not required. Pat Carrigan $13,800 is the Broncos young gun, and I see him racking up another 40 odd tackles and 50 odd points. The new back row is Corey Oates and Joe Ofahengaue $9,400, neither with much 2RF experience. The little data Corey Oates does have is actually half decent, but I have no idea how many minutes he’ll get. If he gets 60+, I think he can scrape his way to 40 points, but it is far from a safe value. Ofahengaue is a safer bet for 65+ minutes and 45 points. Ben Te’o $8,300 is the wildcard off the bench, I have no idea of his minutes either, and I’ll probably just watch him and get a feel for next week.


HOK: Corey Paix $12,480, or Danny Levi $9,800? Paix showed us that he can handle the defensive duties in the middle, racking up 50 tackles in 65 minutes. He offered literally nothing else. Levi may not need to tackle much in this one, and could get an early rest, but the price difference makes this call harder than I expected! Levi being $2500 cheaper than the second-gamer (!) has to give him the edge.


FRF: Payne Haas $20,600, 80 minutes, 80 points. It’s a very handy contribution, and with value available elsewhere it’s worthwhile trying to squeeze him into a few lineups. Matt Lodge $10,330 is back to starting, but I’m not convinced that he goes back to his regular 50+ minute stints. It’s likely he’ll keep sharing the role with Flegler in some way, making them both less attractive, although they have both dropped in price enough to be tempting. Marty Taupau $15,120 and Addin Fonua-Blake $12,560 are the options from Manly, both are capable of breaking 60, but lately it’s been Taupau doing most of the damage. I think I’ll follow that trend and hope that he stays busy with big runs and plenty of offloads to spark his team. If it turns into a blowout, I could see Sean Keppie $8,400 getting some extra minutes from the bench and putting up another nice score as a reasonable value punt.


Final Word: Maybe you can see a path to a Broncos victory, in which case you should back yourself and fire up some contrarian Broncos stacks. Everything points towards another big loss, so I’ll be following the more conventional route and trying to get the right combination of Eagles backs to put with a mix of forwards from both teams. Good luck!



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