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NRL 2021 Daily Fantasy Tips: Round 12 Saturday
Round 12 Super Saturday represents our last three game slates for a couple of weeks as Origin and byes are on the horizon. We kick off with a probable blowout between the Panthers and the Bulldogs. First v Last is a very large gap in a lopsided year for the NRL. Next the Rabbitohs welcome the Eels to Stadium Australia, with both team coming off comprehensive losses and looking to keep a firm grasp on their top 4 spots. Finally, the Roosters shot the Raiders on the Central Coast, in a game that represents two powerhouse teams who are looking a shell of their former selves. Admittedly the Roosters are still hanging in there, but their loss the Broncos last week was ugly, and the less we say about the Raiders form the better, having lost 6 of their last 7 (only narrowly beating the Bulldogs).
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The Panthers should be unchanged, while the Bulldogs welcome back their skipper Josh Jackson at lock, as well as Jack Hetherington at prop and Jackson Topine at hooker. Joe Stimson come onto the bench. The omissions are Corey Waddell, Chris Smith, Sione Katoa and Renouf Atoni.
The Rabbitohs have a number of changes, the biggest being Cameron Murray making his return at lock, with Liam Knight out. Jacob Host replaces Jayden Su’a in the back row, and Taane Milne comes in on the wing for Josh Mansour. Hame See replaces Patrick Mago on the bench. The Eels lost Regan Campbell-Gillard, with Oregon Kaufusi named to start at prop, and Marata Niukore coming onto the bench.
The Roosters lose Angus Crichton and Victor Radley to suspension, with Nat Butcher and Sio Taukeiaho likely to join the starting 13 in their places. Fletcher Baker and Egan Butcher could come onto the bench. Josh Morris returns in place of last weeks debutant Joseph Suaalii. The Raiders get some key troops back with Jordan Rapana, Josh Hodgson, Ryan Sutton and Jack Wighton all coming in. George Williams is no longer with the team, so Sam Williams will play halfback. Semi Valerie goes out for Rapana. Hudson Young goes back to the bench, where he’s joined by Sia Soliola.
Panthers $1.01 v Bulldogs $21.00
Rabbitohs $1.65 v Eels $2.25
Roosters $1.25 v Raiders $4.00
Do you do the obvious by stacking the Panthers and then find some nice plays from the other games, or do you pass on the Panthers and hope to find a unique winning combination elsewhere? It’s very hard to see the latter working, but this is a GPP after all, so if you can find a way you should go for it. I’m expecting both of the later games to turn into tight tussles as all 4 teams are looking to get back to their usual high standards after some recent struggles.
Love It - Stephen Crichton $9,020 / Matt Burton $8,960
I must say that I am astounded by how cheap these two Panthers young guns are this week. Of course, they haven’t exactly been super consistent in their scoring, but both have massive ceilings and get the easiest matchup available to them. Throw in some dual position for both to create extreme lineup flexibility, and both look like smash plays. Of course, every other Panthers back (and forward) is also in a pretty nice position, so take your pick.
Love It - Adam Reynolds $11,500
His contract drama is behind him, and his team is starting to move back towards full strength after a month without some key players. Reynolds has still scored close to his usual level despite a disrupted season so far, and I think it’s time to go into the next gear. His kicking game will be crucial in trying to win the field position battle with the Eels, and he always has some attacking upside. With a price that is clearly too cheap, Reynolds is a great cash play while also having some handy GPP upside if you think the Rabbitohs can get the job done.
Love It - Nat Butcher $8,730
Simply put, Butcher dominates when he gets the opportunity to start, at least in a fantasy sense. He averages 53 in 12 games as a 2RF, which is enough for 6 times his salary and the most obvious value play on the slate. My only note is that he hasn’t actually been named to start yet, but is by far the most obvious replacement for Crichton after he failed in his appeal of his suspension.
Hate It - Luke Thompson $15,510
Thompson is the most expensive forward on the slate, and fair enough as he’s been enormous this season. Unfortunately, a meeting with Panthers is not a good recipe for a ceiling score, especially when you need 70+ to pay off your price. You can also pretty safely avoid most of his teammates and look for more unique plays in the later games to offset your Panthers stacks.
Hate It - Jordan Rapana $11,090
Rapana is another player having an excellent year, in his case a resurgence after a couple of seasons in the wilderness. My reasons for passing on him this week are simple; he’s an old guy coming off an injury, he’s expensive, and the Roosters should be looking to respond to last week’s shocker and will make life hard for the Raiders. If I had to pick a Raiders back in this one it would be Sebastian Kris, but it’s a thin play in itself.
Who Knows - Hooker Position
I’ve seen the position in a worse state, but it’s still doing my head in. There is an absolute logjam of overpriced or unproven players, many of them sharing the role with a bench hooker. The main exceptions are Damien Cook and Api Koroisau, who have been well below their high standards from 2020 so far this season, but can definitely payoff their reduced price tags if today is the day they find some spark. Ben Marshcke is very cheap again after a couple of good games earlier in the season, and Lachlan Lam can be considered as a wildcard if you think the Roosters put the Raiders to the sword. Nobody screams pick me, but we must anyway so do your best!
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