We kick off Round 24 with a match that couldn’t have more finals implications if it tried. The Newcastle Knights (7th) and the Gold Coast Titans (9th) face off on the Sunshine Coast. The Knights can effectively seal their finals position with a win, while the Titans need the points to stay in the group currently 8th and away from the large chasing pack. Both teams have been on the rise recently, although the Titans have run into a big speed bump the last two weeks in the form of the dominant Storm and Rabbitohs.

 

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Team News

 

Just one change for the Knights, with David Klemmer suspended, and Tyson Frizell returning from his own suspension. The reshuffle sees Sauaso Sue promoted to start at prop, and Brodie Jones dropping back to the bench.

 

 

 

 

Several changes for the Titans. Phillip Sami replaces Greg Marzhew on the wing. Tyrone Peachey has been moved to five-eight in place of Ash Taylor. Mitch Rein is back at hooker, with Erin Clark shifting to the bench. David Fifita is named back on the bench, with Beau Fermor starting in the second row. Mo Fotuaika rejoins the team on the bench, with Sam Lisone dropping out.

 

Odds

 

Knights $1.85 v Titans $1.95

Line - 1.5

Total - 47.5      

 

Overview

 

The Knights deserve their slight favouritism based on recent form and being fairly settled (and almost full-strength). The Titans plight relies a lot on their unsettled spine being able to come together behind a pretty decent forward pack. All of Jamal Fogarty, Tyrone Peachey, Mitch Rein and Jayden Campbell are either new to their roles or have been in-and-out of the team and will need to find their best football when it matters (or hope David Fifita goes bananas). Have to favour the Knights for those reasons.

 

Love It - Beau Fermor $9,030

 

The young Titan has impressed in his 80-minute opportunities so far, and it’s likely he’ll get another chance here with Fifita named on the bench. The way this has worked the last few weeks is that Kevin Proctor comes off early for Fifita and plays extremely limited minutes. Fermor should be able to pay off this price without any big plays, and his CTR/2RF eligibility is a nice bonus.

 

Love It - Jacob Saifiti $11,520

 

Saifiti has been playing above his level a lot this season thanks to injuries to his brother Daniel and David Klemmer (who are both out this week). He’s been doing this despite some injuries of his own. This week he’s the #1 big man and has looked fit the last couple of weeks, so I love his chances of playing big minutes and getting through a lot of work. A weak bench will also help his cause.

 

Love It - Bradman Best $9,710

 

The Knights very own Transformer (although more prone to injury) has found a little continuity in the last month, and his left edge of the field has been finding lots of success with Clifford, Pearce, Ponga and Tuala all gelling. The massive ceiling score hasn’t arrived yet, but even his normal 40+ score is enough at this price tag. He’ll be very popular, so almost everyone else at CTR is also in play in GPPs, but I’m happy to differentiate elsewhere.

 

Hate It - Mo Fotuaika $11,650

 

Unlike the Knights, the Titans have named a lot of talent to start the game on the bench. Fotuaika is one of them, and I’ve been wrong about him a lot lately. At this point it’s very likely that he’s been carrying an injury, and a grinding matchup like this is not the place to look for a ceiling score from such a player. I love his youth and his talent, but I’m holding back for now.

 

Hate It - Sam McIntyre $7590

 

The flow-on effect of the strong Titans bench is that minutes are less assured for some of the fringe starters. Other than Proctor who will almost certainly be the victim of Fifita’s entry into the game, McIntyre looks the most vulnerable. His role in the middle can be filled by all of Fotuaika, Jolliffe and Clark. His price keeps him somewhat relevant, but I don’t foresee the type of 40+ score he needs to carry his weight in a GPP.

 

Who Knows - Tyrone Peachey $10,990

 

The ultimate utility is at it again, named to start in the halves with Taylor out. He may not end up starting there with young Toby Sexton in the reserves, but if he does his output could be anything. His previous games at the position suggest an average in the low 40s, with a reliance on tackles and tackle breaks. The price is high enough to demand a 50+ score, so he’ll have to really thrive in the new role to become a slate winner. With no standout value at the HLF position in particular, you could probably do worse.

 

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