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NRL 2021 Daily Fantasy Tips: Round 5 Rabbitohs v Broncos
We’ve made it to Round 5, and it’s starting to look like the gap between the best and worst teams is bigger than ever. No more bragging about any team being able to beat anyone on their day. We kick off the round with another such game, featuring the 2nd favourite for the premiership (South Sydney Rabbitohs) hosting reigning wooden spooners and likely bottom 4 team the Brisbane Broncos. The Broncos had their first blowout loss of the season last week, and the Rabbits their first blowout win, so the trend lines are pointing to a very lopsided contest. The little bit of rain around Sydney should clear in time for a dry Thursday night contest.
Draftstars has a $15,000 contest with $1,133 to first place. There are also several other contests including the Mini, Micro, and the High Roller. As you would expect, the pricing has been done so that Rabbitohs players are more expensive than usual, and Broncos remain cheap. This is great for these lopsided slates as we must make calculated fades for players who seem likely to do well and find a few roughies who may not be in a great spot.
The Rabbitohs lose both Cody Walker and Keaon Koloamatangi to suspension this week. Their replacements are Benji Marshall in the halves and Jacob Host at 2RF. Dean Hawkins comes onto the bench to make his debut as a utility. There shouldn’t be much change to how the team functions with Marshall and Host both decent like-for-like replacements.
The Broncos are surprisingly settled, with Herbie Farnworth (injury) and Patrick Carrigan (suspension) the only outs. Richie Kennar comes in to play left centre, while Tevita Pangai moves to lock and John Asiata comes onto the bench. Tom Dearden is named to start at halfback again after switching with Brodie Croft last week, who is named to start on the bench.
Rabbitohs $1.06, Broncos $9.00
Line – 21.5
Total – 43.5
This one looks very straightforward, with the Broncos crumbling defensively against any decent team and offering very little in attack. All we’ve seen from them so far is 40-minute efforts, which only got the job done against the Bulldogs who offered absolutely nothing. This might just come down to who can get most creative with their Rabbits stacks and find the right value pieces from the Broncos to make it affordable. There is a part of me that just can’t quit betting on the Broncos, so I guess a contrarian Broncos stack isn’t totally out of the equation.
Love It - Benji Marshall $8,790
Marshall is fantasy gold, in that he’s been rotting away on the bench this season, getting a few minutes here and there. He’s now dirt cheap and should be able to score 40+ as an 80 minute half, especially as a heavy favourite. There are other options worth considering at the HLF position, but it’s difficult to pass up clear value like this.
Love It - Alex Johnston $9,410
We all know AJ is a try scoring machine, averaging one try and one line break per game over his career. So far in 2021 he’s maintaining those numbers, and there’s no reason that won’t be the case again this week. As the cheapest Rabbitohs backline player, he should be a popular piece in Rabbitohs stacks and as good a bet as any to score multiple times and exceed value.
Love It - Tevita Pangai Jr $14,120
It’s not easy to find playable Broncos on this slate, so I’ve settled on TPJ as the devastating, high-ceiling player that could still rack up a huge score in a heavy loss. He could also lose his head and become a liability, so be careful with too much exposure.
Hate It - Jake Turpin $15,330
In a position with only two available options (Turpin and Cook), it’s hard to completely write off one player. Having said that, my clear preference is Cook as a player with a career average some 15 points per game higher and a much better ceiling. Turpin has had a good couple of weeks, but he showed what can happen with only 31 points in Round 2, plus I’m wary of a performance closer to that than his ~60 scores.
Hate It - Xavier Coates $8,120
Of course, I don’t like many of the Broncos backs in this game, but Coates is the one I’ll single out because his recent form numbers could make him tempting. So far this year Coates has scored 6 tries in 4 games and still only put up one slate winning score. Most of his tries have been simple finishes, and soon enough he’ll have a quiet game. A game this lopsided seems like the right time to give him a miss. I prefer David Mead at minimum price.
Who Knows - Latrell Mitchell $13,970
Latrell has been in some great form this year, but other than a massive 81 points in Rd 1 (11 tackle breaks), it hasn’t really translated into fantasy points. He had a great combination going with Cody Walker, so his omission could see Latrell a little less involved on the left edge. I’m still expecting a big performance from the fullback, but I don’t know if he can score the 60+ points that may be needed to pay off such a big price tag. It’s only the fact that his teammates are also expensive that has me still interested in working him into my line-ups.
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