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NRL 2022 Daily Fantasy Tips: State of Origin 3
Drop everything, and get ready for an epic State of Origin decider, as Game 3 rolls into Queensland after NSW handed out a thrashing in the Perth leg of the series. Of course this article is getting us fired up for a particularly tasty DFS contest, but we should just be very excited for the real-life spectacle also. Neither team contains anyone that could be considered an Origin great just yet, and this is the kind of stage where those kind of reputations can start to be forged.
Draftstars has a MASSIVE $50,000 contest with $4935 to first place. There are also several other contests including the Mini, Micro, and the High Roller.
New South Wales has one change from their winning team, with Payne Haas unavailable through injury and replaced by Jacob Saifiti. It would have been Jordan McLean before a heartbreaking hamstring injury in camp. It’s likely that Junior Paulo is promoted to start with Saifiti coming off the bench. The Koroisau/Cook pairing continues at hooker, after both looked dangerous in their respective stints in game one. Jake Trbojevic imposed himself in the middle of the field in game 2 and will need to do so again without Haas. Matt Burton and Stephen Crichton both hold onto their centre spots after strong performances.
Queensland initially had just one forced change, with Felise Kaufusi out. Jeremiah Nanai shifts into the starting second row spot and Tom Gilbert gets an Origin debut off the bench. Unfortunately Cam Munster and Murray Taulagi have also been forced out by COVID, but Queensland don’t want to tell us who is taking their spots! It’s likely going to be Corey Oates on the wing and Tom Dearden in the halves. The rest of the team is consistent with the roles from the first two games.
Queensland $3.25 v New South Wales $1.35
The odds have blown out massively, despite the game being at Suncorp Stadium. A big part of that is the absence of Munster, who is the clear leader of the Maroons team. I can’t really argue with the odds, NSW were supreme in the second half of game 2 and Queensland have only gotten weaker. Having said that, the pricing has gone up on NSW in particular, so even if the result works out as expected, there is room for multiple Queensland players in a winning line-up.
Love It - Daly Cherry-Evans $20,570
DCE is very close to matchup proof, and consistently pumps out scores int he 60 region with exceptional base stats and attacking upside. He can be boosted a little further in this game by the absence of Munster, who demands the ball a lot more than the Manly skipper is used to at NRL level. Playing next to Dearden he should get a bigger share of the kicking duties and perhaps a few more attacking opportunities. Nathan Cleary has gotten a much-needed price bump, but is still a very strong and likely the chalky play at the HH position. I’m interested in leaning towards Cherry-Evans a decent amount, as well as playing the pair together.
Love It - Brian To’o $15,510
The dynamic Blues winger has seen another price rise, but it’s still not enough. He averages 54 in his 5 Origin games, about the level we expect at NRL level when fully fit. He’ll be chalky, so there is an argument for looking elsewhere, but it’s just really hard to see him failing at this price if NSW do win the game easily. Going up to Tedesco or down to Tupou is also very strong with both plenty cheap enough for their expected output.
Love It - Angus Crichton $9710
There are a lot of viable forwards, so I thought I’d pick out a left field option. Crichton as owned by just 4% of the field in game 2, and despite getting significantly cheaper I expect something similar in this game. He’s priced next to Junior Paulo who should soak a lot more attention if he starts. Crichton saw 34 minutes in game 1, which is enough for him to create some carnage and score 40+ as he does in this role at NRL level. Paulo can be projected similarly, but the ownership discount is extremely valuable in a massive contest like this.
Hate It - Jake Trbojevic $16,880
Trbojevic reminded me how good he can be when looking tireless int he middle of the field in Game 2, but he did pretty much what we can expect in the prop position and had 46 points to show for it. While that was solid at $14,400 & 17% in that contest, this price rise makes it very hard to see him having the necessary ceiling. With players like Yeo, Murray, Carrigan and Fa’asuamaleaui possessing much bigger upside at similar (or better) prices, I feel good about ignoring the Manly workhorse in this one.
Hate It - The Hookers (again)
Both teams have the same hooker split (provided Hunt doesn’t switch to the halves), and again that looks problematic for their fantasy utility. None of the four managed to clear 30 points in game 2, and only Harry grant can really be projected to do so on a regular basis. All but Grant have seen their price cut for this contest, but it’s not enough when they share a position with the aforementioned Cleary and DCE. I’m open to playing some Grant, but otherwise it’s the halves that have my attention in the HH position.
Who Knows - Tom Dearden $9540
I’m only 50% sure he’s playing at this point, so it’s hard to say anything definitive about the 21 year old half. What I can say for sure is that his season at the Cowboys has seen a big step back in playmaking duties as Chad Townsend took over all kicking duties. That’s meant his fantasy coring has been very reliant one regular attacking output, and since that dried up in the last 10 round he’s averaged 34. I don’t expect much different at this level, but he is cheap enough to be worth a shot if you think he can jag a try or play a bigger role than expected while leading QLD to victory. It’s pretty unlikely though. Another young Cowboy who probably has more paths to relevance on the slate is Jeremiah Nanai. He also sources a lot of his 45 average from big attacking players, but is capable of a big defensive workload when required. His minutes could be cut a bit short by the presence of Tom Gilbert on the bench, but there is another upside to consider slotting him into some line-ups.