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AFL 2019 Finals Fantasy Tips: GWS vs Western Bulldogs
Finals footy is upon us and each game has received a major single game DFS contest across both platforms. We will be breaking down each individual game to help you pick the best possible team. The third game of the first week of finals is GWS vs Western Bulldogs at the Showground Stadium on Saturday the 7th of September, at 3:20pm AEST. The major contests include:
AFL $10,000 Giants vs Bulldogs Special at MoneyBall
AFL $1,000 Giants vs Bulldogs ($2 Entry) at MoneyBall
AFL $50,000+ Giants vs Bulldogs at Draftstars
AFL $3,000+ Giants vs Bulldogs $2 Mini at Draftstars
AFL $600+ Giants vs Bulldogs (Single Entry) at Draftstars
Smatho and Big Hef from the DFS Down Under Show broke down this matchup between GWS and the Western Bulldogs discussing their DFS plays. Check them out here!
In addition to the previews for each and every slate during the finals, Daily Fantasy Rankings has also unveiled our AFL Resources page. This section provides you all the data you need to build your best line-ups. It includes daily cheat sheets for both Draftstars and Moneyball, Player Correlation tables, Player Out tables, Scores Against tables, Tagging information, statistical breakdowns and much more!
The game as seen by the bookmakers:
GWS Giants vs Western Bulldogs at Showground Stadium (bookmarkers’ total 162.5, line WB -3.5)
Where to Attack
These two teams have been two of the toughest to score against all season from a fantasy perspective. The Western Bulldogs have conceded the 5th fewest points in the league, while the Giants have given up the 2nd least. The last five rounds have told a different story, however, as the Bulldogs became even stingier on their path to sneaking into the finals, and GWS started leaking points as they battled a number of injuries.
Despite the Giants having the majority of their star power back for the finals and playing at home, the Bulldogs remain slight favourites on the back of belting GWS by 10 goals just two rounds ago.
The backline has not been the avenue to attack either side this year, particularly for premium backs as they have given up the 4th and 2nd fewest points in the league to the oppositions top 3 scorers at the position.
Premium midfielders have also had a tough time scoring against either side this year, with the Bulldogs conceding 102 points per game to the opponents top three scorers, and GWS just 101. These are the two lowest marks in the entire league.
The last five weeks have been more free flowing with both sides giving up the 109 and 108 points respectively, however it does not look to be the slate to try and load up on the high priced midfielders. When these two teams met during the season there were just 3 players on each team who topped the 100 point mark.
Wow… this is a ruck battle for the ages as the two teams that conceded the most points to the opposition number one ruckman this season square off. Incredibly both Shane Mumford and Tim English were late outs when these sides met in round 22 so their form against each other is yet to be exposed. Mumford should have a significant edge over Tim English in the ruck contests, like most ruckman in the AFL do at this stage, however English will have Mumford covered and then some around the ground.
The Western Bulldogs have not tagged at all this year, so that leaves us with just one man to worry about in this game, the infamous Matthew De Boer. De Boer has been destroying fantasy dreams all season, not allowing a single one of his 13 assignments to top the 100 point mark. In fact he has allowed just one score over 90, which was Marcus Bontempelli in round 22. I would assume he once again goes to the Bont in this matchup and as a result I strongly advise fading him on this slate.
Rhylee West (MB $3,500, DS $5,880) is a huge chance to remain in the side if Tory Dickson can’t get over his hamstring niggle. If he does he will be a lock as a value play in my sides. As mentioned last week he has absolutely dominant in the VFL in recently with a 29 disposal, 7 tackles and 4 goals against Essendon three weeks ago, followed up by a 22 disposal, 10 tackles and 2 goal game against North Melbourne. He has played two games at AFL level this season to average 53.5 fantasy points, which is enough to return GPP winning value at his minimum price range. He is unlikely to get a great deal of midfield time acting as Dicksons replacement, but in both games this year he has shown ability to find the football up forward averaging 14 disposals.
MID PRICED PLAYS
Jeremy Cameron (MB $7,600, DS $12,370) showed no signs of his injury hampering his output last week. Albeit against the Gold Coast and getting some help from his team mates, he was able to pour on the second half goals and steal the coleman medal from Ben Brown, all while scoring 154 fantasy points. It won’t be as easy going in the first final, however the Western Bulldogs have had a history of struggling with key forwards. With the general public expect the Bulldogs to win this game, Cameron could be a lowish owned play in a positive matchup. Cameron has averaged 110 points per game from his last 5 games at Giants Stadium
Shane Mumford (MB $5,700, DS $9,380) as noted above, Mumford has the top matchup in the league for his position and at this point in time is expected to be rucking without Dawson Simpson in the team. Mumford has averaged 89.5 fantasy points in games where he has had 40+ hit outs this season, and Tim English and the Western Bulldogs have conceded the most hit outs in the league in 2019 at 48.8 per game. This makes him a far safer play than English on this slate, and is a cheaper price point across both platforms.
Josh Kelly (MB $10,400, DS $15,860) has had two games now since returning from injury and should be nearing regular match fitness. This is critical as Kelly has had just two games under 100 points this season, the game where he sustained the injury and his first game back post injury. The other 12 games he has played year have all been 100+, with 10 of them being 113+. That is absolutely ridiculous output and against an opponent that does not tag Kelly is the first midfielder picked in my opinion. Kelly also performs slightly better at Giants Stadium averaging +2.2 points per game on the ground over his last 28 matches there.
Keep an eye on team selections as Toby Greene is expected to play and Jacob Hopper is also likely to make a return. If these two are both fit and in the side I will be totally fading Toby Greene. With Josh Kelly back and if Hopper also returns I expect him to return his forward role he was playing before the injury crisis struck the Giants. Basically Greene went into the midfield after Stephen Coniglio went down against Richmond in Round 17. The Giants were already without Kelly at the time, so the assumption is that with Kelly back it pushes Greene back forward. He may still be a popular play given his performance since the role change, so this fade could be the opportunity to get the jump one the field.
Dragon's Suggested Moneyball Team
The Daily Fantasy Rankings "Dragon" has scoured the Australian sports betting markets and found some great value picks for this game. Check out his picks for the day below and click on the links to follow his betting plays!
|Josh Kelly Most Fantasy Points||$4.50||Bet now at BetEasy!|
|GWS Win||$2.05||Bet now at Neds!|
|Lachie Whitfield 30+ Disposals||$2.00||Bet now at Sportsbet!|
|GWS/Under 162.5||$3.30||Bet now at Pointsbet!|
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